Terry Gardner Jr. Archives - Page 2 of 3 - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – India’s Election May Have Broad Implications for the Global Economy

As U.S. investors evaluate the policy positions of the growing field of candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and attempt to gauge the impact of the recently released Mueller report, the world’s largest election has commenced in India. The first phase of the seven-phase Indian parli...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

Last week’s jobs report seemed to strike the right tone with the stock market. The U.S. Labor Department calculated that March nonfarm payrolls advanced by 196,000 versus an estimate of 175,000, and that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Prior to its release the report was...

April 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Market Gets a Lyft, but Equities Can’t Find Long Term Love

If you returned from a remote, deserted island (without wifi!) and were told that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield had declined another 32 basis points in 1Q19, on continued fears of slowing global economic growth, it is not likely that you would have guessed that stocks staged an impressive ral...

March 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Free Cash Flow Is King

Last week’s U.S. economic data releases sent mixed signals. The U.S. industrial economy continues to slow, as indicated by weaker-than-expected Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. But the consumer economy remains robust, bolstered by low unemployment and persistent consume...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

The better-than-expected trade data out of China last week was downplayed by most economists who suggested that the data may have been distorted by the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism has been rising, particularly in the Chinese equity markets, that a U.S.-China trade d...

February 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Market and Stock Analysts in Sync on Slower Growth

Last week’s announcement from the European Commission that it had lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.9% to 1.3% broke a string of positive events and announcements that had helped lift stock prices from their December lows. Better-than-feared 4Q18 earnings results ...

February 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Many Will Survive but Only Few Will Thrive in a Healthy U.S. Consumer Economy

Given the sharp decline in equities during the month of December, and the negative headlines generated by the U.S. federal government shut-down, it should not have come as a surprise that the January Consumer Confidence Index reading dropped below December’s level. But the magnitude of the decli...

January 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Revenue Growers Stand Out

This coming week will be an important one for earnings watchers. 126 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report 4Q18 results, including bellwethers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. So far, fourth quarter reports are coming in close to plan. Of the 110 companies that have repor...

January 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Outperformance May Be Found in Unlikely Places

The stock market is off to a good start in 2019. The rally began the day after Christmas and has continued through the first few weeks of January. Investors expecting a Santa Claus rally in December had been sorely disappointed by the lump of coal they received instead. But Santa l...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

On December 19, 2018 The Federal Reserve raised the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. During this holiday week, we are proud to repost this popular C.J. Lawrence Weekly, originally published on November 22, 2018 for additional perspective. Have a wonderful hol...

December 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability. The current environment is providing neither. After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019. But the negative impact of...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

The stock market’s recent swings have been dramatic. On several occasions the S&P 500 has completed a round-trip move of more than 3% in a single session. Last week the Index reached a high of 2,800 but finished the week at 2,623, down 6.3% from the intra-week high and down 4.6% for the week. ...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

The trade détente between the United States and China may provide temporary relief from the negative sentiment around global trade. Whether the dialogue can transition into an actual agreement will play out over the next several weeks. But to date, despite growing consensus expectations of both slo...

November 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Checking the Pulse of the Freight Economy

The shift in economic and market sentiment during the past few weeks has been palpable. The once synchronized global growth chorus has subsided and has been replaced with a negative refrain of global growth deceleration. Recent lackluster economic data releases from China and Europe have contributed...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

This week, millions of consumers will finish their shopping for the time-honored American tradition, the Thanksgiving Dinner. If Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, handles those duties for his family, he’ll find some interesting data to consider, adding to ...

November 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

November 12, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence’s Terry Gardner Quoted in Yahoo Finance – November 12, 2018

3 Signs Bears Are Poised to Devour the Stock Market Bulls by Brian Sozzi, Editor-at-Large, Yahoo Finance Article Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-signs-bears-poised-devour-stock-market-bulls-193501594.html One really shouldn’t be shocked by Monday’s bruising market sell-off, provided the...

November 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 On Track for “Quiet” Year Despite Spike in VIX

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOE) developed and launched the Market Volatility Index (VIX) in 1993, based on the Sigma Index and methodology created by Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai in 1986. Today it is a commonly referred to as the “fear gauge” because of the perception that higher volati...

October 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation on Sale

The recent market sell-off has investors questioning their allocation strategies and the underpinnings of the bull market in stocks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is now down 0.56%, after being up 11.2% at its September peak. The Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary sectors were j...

October 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Is U.S. Economic Growth Reaching a Peak? The Bond Vigilantes May Tell Us.

In the early 1980’s our former Deutsche Bank colleague, Dr. Ed Yardeni, coined the phrase “Bond Vigilantes” to describe bond market reactions to loose fiscal policy. When the federal government threatened to ramp debt-fueled spending, the Bond Vigilantes would ride in, sell treasuries, and p...

October 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Don’t Fear the Rate Cycle

Last week’s dramatic stock market headlines sounded much worse than the result. The S&P 500 Index finished down 0.9% for the week, and, as of Friday, was up 7.9% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ Composite did not fare as well trading off 3.2% for the week but was outperforming most oth...

October 1, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China’s Pain be India’s Gain?

By many accounts, the pace of growth of the Chinese economy has been slowing over the past two quarters and the Chinese government is considering new sources of stimulus to help the country sustain its 6.5% target rate of GDP growth. The imposition of import tariffs on many Chinese goods destined fo...

September 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Peak Margins? Not Yet.

The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at 3.07% on Friday, up 8 basis points for the week, continuing its recent uptrend. In fact, the 10-year yield is up 22 basis points in the last month. Despite strong demand for treasuries, which tends to suppress yields, the 10-year treasury yiel...

September 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Valuations and Earnings Growth Play Tug-of-War in Earnings-Driven Markets

Better-than-expected economic data released last week did little to buoy stock prices. The 49-year low in unemployment claims, impressive increase in the ISM non-manufacturing Index, jump in non-defense capital goods orders, and 2.9% year/year growth in wages all failed to propel the market higher...

September 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Freight Economy Remains Strong Despite Tariff Uncertainty

International trade watchers marked Sept 6 on their calendars as the conclusion of the public comment period for the U.S. administration’s proposed $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. The new tariffs could be imposed any time thereafter and come on the heels of $50 billion in new tarif...

August 20, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Back to School with 529 College Savings Plans

Today’s American families are spending record amounts of time and resources on their kids’ activities, and parents are pulling out all the stops to enable and encourage their children’s success. Research conducted by Utah State University in 2015 suggested that families included in their stu...

August 13, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – S&P 500 Companies Beat High 2Q18 Expectations

Second quarter financial reporting season is approaching its close, with over 90% of S&P 500 constituents having announced quarterly results. If the remaining companies deliver results in line with expectations, earnings per share for the index will be up around 25% from last year’s level. T...

August 6, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Growth Remains Attractive…Comparisons to the “Nifty Fifty” and Internet Bubble Periods Miss the Mark

The sell-off in technology shares at the end of July spurred in a chorus of money managers to suggest that the growth dam had finally broken and to forecast that the performance gap between growth stocks and value stocks would close. Several market pundits cited “excessive” valuations on growth ...

July 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Supply-Demand Imbalance Bodes Well for Rebound in Housing Related Stocks

Estimates of U.S. Households[/caption]Wednesday’s dramatic decline in Facebook’s share price overshadowed another significant sell-off in a housing related stock. Shares of Mohawk Industries (MHK) declined 17.5% in Thursday’s trading session after the company reported 2Q18 results that fell ...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

Trade and tariff concerns caused U.S. equity markets to stumble in early June and have dominated the business news flow since. But as investors turned their attention to 2Q18 earnings results, some fear subsided, and U.S. stock prices recovered. The S&P 500 Index price is up 3.1% since July 1. B...

July 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Healthy Corporate Fundamentals and Stalled Bond Yields Keep the CJL Market Monitor in BUY Territory

The Market Monitor’s current reading is “BUY”, with a numerical score of +1, the lowest reading in BUY territory, on a scale of -6 to +6. As the Fed has lifted the Fed Funds target rate, the year-over-year interest rate rate-of-change models have weighed on the Monitor score. But despite ri...

June 26, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Recognized as Top Guns Manager by Informa Investment Solutions, PSN

For Immediate Release: NEW YORK, June 26, 2018 C.J. Lawrence today announced that its CJL Balanced product which combines CJL’s Bulldog-equity strategy with an allocation into fixed income, has been recognized with Top Gun status by Informa Investment Solutions’ PSN manager ranking database ...

June 25, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Down but Not Out…Industrial Stocks Warrant a Closer Look

Investors in industrial stocks are likely disappointed with the sector’s year-to-date price performance. The S&P Industrials Sector Index price is down 4.3% year-to-date despite being up 5.1% over the last year. The sector became a market darling in late 2017, but lost its luster in early ...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

June 11, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Support for Consumer Discretionary Stocks…U.S. Household Net Worth Exceeds $100 Trillion for First Time

It’s not surprising that U.S. Consumer Confidence is high. U.S. household net worth eclipsed $100 trillion for the first time in 1Q18, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Flow of Funds report. The two categories that have the greatest impact on household balance sheets are p...

May 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Growth Stocks Reaccelerate

On a relative basis, it has been a challenging decade for value investing practitioners. Since January of 2009, the S&P 500 Growth Index has delivered a 326% total return, while the S&P 500 Value Index returned 212% during the same period. Definitions of what constitutes value stocks and...

May 21, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Healthy U.S. Consumer is Bullish for Consumer Discretionary Sector Leaders

After a difficult second half of 2017, the S&P Consumer Discretionary sector index has staged an impressive comeback. In the past six months the sector price index is up 12.1%, 6.9% ahead of the broader S&P 500 Index. Over the past several years, the bull-bear battles within the sector h...

May 14, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Margin Expansion Suggests Current Business Cycle Has Legs

In the late stages of a business cycle it is typical to see profit margins contract in the face of rising input costs and strained revenue growth. But over the past decade, U.S. business efficiency improvements have helped companies avoid the deep margin troughs of past cycles, and sustain histori...

May 7, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Falling Down on the Multiple Staircase

S&P 500 earnings per share estimates (EPS) for 2018 have increased 8.8% since the beginning of the year, and look to be heading higher. 2019 estimates have climbed by about the same amount. The Index price, however, is not following suit, and is down slightly (-.38%) year-to-date. The road...

April 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Rising Rates Provide Headwind, not Barrier, for Stocks

Last week’s market action was noteworthy for its flowing cross-currents. Economic and corporate earnings reports were particularly strong, but for bulls, the equity market’s reaction was disappointing. The S&P 500 Index finished the week close to flat, versus the prior week’s close. Ma...

April 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation at a Reasonable Price…IRP Investing

For decades, U.S. corporate research and development (R&D) spending was dominated by automotive and pharmaceutical companies. In the 1960s and 1970s, as the big-3 auto companies became embroiled in market share wars amongst themselves, and later versus foreign auto manufacturers, research and ...

April 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Cash Flow on the Rise

A once highly anticipated technology sales pipeline report was released on Wednesday with little fanfare. Worldwide shipments of traditional personal computers (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) in 1Q18 were equal to last year’s level, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) W...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

It’s difficult to identify a singular catalyst for the market’s recent volatility. Whether it’s politics, trade, or corporate stumbles, the equity markets’ reaction to events and news has been swift and pronounced. The large intraday swings in stock prices suggest that traders are shooti...

March 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Stumble-Prone Equity Market Remains on Solid Footing

2017’s prize-fighter equity market now looks like it may have a glass jaw. In 2017, the S&P 500 posted a positive return in each month of the year, and shrugged off negative news at nearly every turn. But already in 2018, the market has experienced two 6+% corrections. Events that would ...

November 7, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Economy is Supportive of Accelerating S&P 500 Top-Line Growth

It was not surprising that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged last week, but the pressure seems to be mounting for a December move. The third quarter GDP result of 3.0% was followed, last week, by an impressive ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reading of 60.1...

December 14, 2016
News & Media

Goldman Sachs: MVP of a Dow 20000

Terry Gardner advises people to hold off investing in banks, despite the Wall Street bank’s stock rocketing since the election. Ву John Carney | Dec. 14, 2016 5:30 a.m. ЕТ Goldman shares are up 31% since Election Day, rising to within striking distance of their all-time closing high of $247....

Terry Gardner Jr.

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