Equity Markets

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

The relationship between price-earnings multiples and inflation is captured in the C.J. Lawrence “Rule of 20” which Jim devised in the 1980s. The Rule suggests that adding the current price-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 to the annual rate of inflation should approximate 20, which is the 50-...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

The market’s risk-off posture has pushed U.S. treasury bond prices higher and yields meaningfully lower. Sliding treasury bond yields, which had previously been viewed as a positive support for stocks are no longer viewed as bullish....

March 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The IPO Canary is Still Singing

Significant outflows from stock funds and into bond funds experienced during the past three years, and nine-year high cash levels in money market funds, suggest there is ample capital available for investors to deploy and/or reallocate for favored new issues. So long as the broader market remains i...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

For stock investors, low rates are a welcome market backdrop, and have helped stocks recover from their December lows. Of course, favorable headlines regarding a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China have helped boost market sentiment, but the fundamental underpinning of low interest rates ...

December 26, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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The Grinch that Stole Christmas – C.J. Lawrence Special Market Commentary – 12/26/18 by Bernhard Koepp

Looking at each of the 7 selloffs without recessions since 1984, see chart below, all ended with the central bank easing and a favorable environment for stock returns. We are therefore not ready to call this a bear market for stocks....

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

Despite growing consensus expectations of both slowing international trade and global growth, company analysts have not dramatically ratcheted back their 2019 sales and earnings growth forecasts and are therefore unlikely to raise them if a deal is consummated. ...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

The U.S. 10-year treasury bond yield looks to also be questioning the outlook for growth and inflation. Despite strong employment reports and record treasury issuance, the 10-year yield has drifted back below 3.1%. Odds are high that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds target rate at its December mee...

October 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Don’t Fear the Rate Cycle

But an examination of past rate cycles suggests periods of steadily rising rates do not end bull markets. In fact, periods of economic growth and tightening interest rate conditions are often accompanied by strong equity performance. Excluding the high-inflation period of the late 1970’s-early 1...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

The sell-off in Chinese shares, including those listed on U.S. stock exchanges, may provide an attractive buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term view. Despite its challenges, China remains the worlds’ fastest growing economy, according to data provided by the World Bank, and its dome...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

Consecutive multi-year revenue growth, above 4.0% annually, has historically been a strong underpinning for stock prices. Over the past 25 years, there have been three periods when the S&P 500 produced 4.0%+ revenue growth for three or more consecutive years. During those periods the average annua...

February 20, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Financials Sector is the Baby that Should be Put Back in the Bath

We made the point in a recent Weekly Market Comment that the shrinking US publicly traded company share count could be a contributing factor to the equity market’s long bull run. The same phenomenon can also contribute to stock price volatility on a short-term basis, as witnessed during the last t...

January 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Want to Buy Stocks? Get In Line.

But for the growing number of investors looking to build new, or add to existing, stock positions, finding attractively priced, highly liquid stocks to purchase is getting more challenging and competitive. The number of public companies listed on major U.S exchanges peaked in 1998 at around 7,500. A...

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