Equity Markets Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

This post was originally written on March 18, 2022, 6:59 PM EST. Markets ended the week on a friendlier note, up 6.2% for the week, back to the 200-day moving average for the broader market (S&P500) while the Nasdaq has a long way to go to repair some of the technical damage it suffered since [&...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period. Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

This post was originally written on March 4, 2022, 6:20 PM EST. Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probabiltiy scenario going into 2022. (We rem...

February 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This post was originally written on February 28, 2022, 6:01 PM EST. This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Russian banks’ ability to use the European payments system (SWIFT) were severely curtailed. Russian assets a...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

Equity investors demonstrated considerable buying restraint over the past several weeks as interest rates flirted with historic lows. In early September, the U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond yield slipped below 1.5%, where it had not been since 2016 and 2012 before that. Historically, as rat...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

Equity markets tend to thrive during periods of economic stability and visibility and struggle during times of economic and political uncertainty. Last week, as investors were grappling with the challenges associated with China-U.S. trade tensions, the Mexico tariff grenade was tossed into the ten...

March 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The IPO Canary is Still Singing

While investors were lamenting the inversion of the mid-section of the treasury yield curve late last week, traders on the floor of the NYSE were celebrating the revival of denim. The traders’ fashion statement was in honor of the return of Levi Strauss (LEVI) to the public marketplace. The co...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

December 26, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Grinch that Stole Christmas – C.J. Lawrence Special Market Commentary – 12/26/18 by Bernhard Koepp

A perfect storm of policy missteps is to blame for the current 20% market correction off the October high. The main culprits are: Unresolved trade dispute with China Fed Tightening/Miscommunication Government shutdown over border wall Trump cabinet resignations Treasury miscommunication re banks’ ...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

The trade détente between the United States and China may provide temporary relief from the negative sentiment around global trade. Whether the dialogue can transition into an actual agreement will play out over the next several weeks. But to date, despite growing consensus expectations of both slo...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

This week, millions of consumers will finish their shopping for the time-honored American tradition, the Thanksgiving Dinner. If Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, handles those duties for his family, he’ll find some interesting data to consider, adding to ...

October 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Don’t Fear the Rate Cycle

Last week’s dramatic stock market headlines sounded much worse than the result. The S&P 500 Index finished down 0.9% for the week, and, as of Friday, was up 7.9% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ Composite did not fare as well trading off 3.2% for the week but was outperforming most oth...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

Trade and tariff concerns caused U.S. equity markets to stumble in early June and have dominated the business news flow since. But as investors turned their attention to 2Q18 earnings results, some fear subsided, and U.S. stock prices recovered. The S&P 500 Index price is up 3.1% since July 1. B...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

February 20, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Financials Sector is the Baby that Should be Put Back in the Bath

We made the point in a recent Weekly Market Comment that the shrinking US publicly traded company share count could be a contributing factor to the equity market’s long bull run. The same phenomenon can also contribute to stock price volatility on a short-term basis, as witnessed during the last t...

January 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Want to Buy Stocks? Get In Line.

Positive 4Q17 earnings results, an improving economic backdrop and outlook, rising corporate profit forecasts, and increasingly bullish sentiment have added fuel to an already roaring stock market fire. The S&P 500 Index tacked on another 2.2% last week, putting the index price up 7.5% year-to-d...

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