Volatility

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottomed around that same time, clawing back about half of the loss incurr...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner shares his thoughts on earnings and interest rates, sector leadership, the outlook for the stock market and economy in late 2022 and 2023, and the benefits of long term investing. ...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

The direction of absolute U.S. Treasury bond yields will offer important insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, the direction of inflation, and investor risk appetite. But yield spreads are another useful tool in gauging the health of U.S. rated companies and their risks related to the di...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

November 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Checking the Pulse of the Freight Economy

The shift in economic and market sentiment during the past few weeks has been palpable. The once synchronized global growth chorus has subsided and has been replaced with a negative refrain of global growth deceleration. ...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

What’s changed in the backdrop is the calculus on global growth. The U.S.– China tariff and trade battle has cast a pall over the global synchronized economic growth scenario, encouraging the IMF to lower its forecast for global economic growth for this year and next, to 3.7% from 3.9%, and to ...

August 27, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Irrational Exuberance? No. Healthy Skepticism.

Domestic equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) continue to experience net outflows, while bond mutual funds and bond exchange traded funds continue to experience inflows. Net flows out of domestic equity funds totaled $66 billion in 2016, $50 billion in 2017, and have already experien...

July 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – New S&P Sector Construct Could Create Volatility this Summer (Repost from March 12, 2018)

Followers of the CJL Weekly Market Comment are familiar with our practice of looking below the broader market indices to compare the fundamentals, price performance, and valuations of the 11 different S&P Sectors, 24 Industry Groups and, 157 Sub-Industries. This style of analysis dates back to the o...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

Improving fundamentals and corresponding increases in corporate cash flow should help dividend payors maintain and increase payouts to shareholders in 2018. Shares of companies with track records of consistent and meaningful dividend increases, look poised to outperform in 2018 and deserve a meanin...

March 23, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Where to Hide In A Stormy Environment?

In short, rising trade wars or reciprocal tariffs regardless of what sector they effect, if implemented, make whatever they target more expensive. This adds fuel to the idea that we need to be positioned for inflation down the road....

February 20, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Financials Sector is the Baby that Should be Put Back in the Bath

We made the point in a recent Weekly Market Comment that the shrinking US publicly traded company share count could be a contributing factor to the equity market’s long bull run. The same phenomenon can also contribute to stock price volatility on a short-term basis, as witnessed during the last t...

December 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Improving Earnings Growth Forecasts Suggest the Bull May be Sharpening His Horns

According to Tuesday’s release from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) the global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn becoming increasingly synchronized across countries. The OECD now forecasts 3.7% global economic growth in 2018. At...

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