China Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner shares his thoughts on earnings and interest rates, sector leadership, the outlook for the stock market and economy in late 2022 and 2023, and the benefits of long term investing. ...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

Turning to the September inflation report, headline CPI year-on-year for September was down slightly at 8.2%, in line with the previous three declines. The all-important core inflation which excludes food and energy was unfortunately up again....

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottomed around that same time, clawing back about half of the loss incurr...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the "market playbook", and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)....

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. ...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Our CJL Rule of 20 tells us that the sum of the forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 added to the annual CPI core inflation rate should equal about 20. The current reading is 20.1, which sounds about right. Therefore, for stocks to move higher without violating the Rule, the “E” portion of the ...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

Despite the weakness in the underlying freight economy, analysts who track industrial and materials companies remain optimistic. Earnings per share for the S&P Industrials Sector Index and S&P Materials Sector Index are forecasted to grow 17% and 15% respectively in 2020. ...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Industrial Stocks Challenged by Slowing Global Manufacturing Activity

The market playbook was challenged last week. Under the “old rules”, Friday’s release of better-than-expected second quarter US GDP should have nudged up U.S. treasury bond yields and caused gold prices to cool. But the yield on the benchmark U.S 10-Year treasury bond was flat on F...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

Equity analysts have been slow to lower earnings forecasts for this and next, but the bond market is already signaling meaningfully slower growth ahead, catalyzed by lower global trade activity....

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

We’ve written previously about the longer-term impact of the trade war on sourcing and manufacturing decisions, and our belief that one of the stand-off outcomes will be the re-shoring of manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. over the next several years. But in the meantime, the global economy ...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

But the U.S., which has been undergoing its own industrial and manufacturing renaissance, catalyzed by the evolution of low-cost energy production and availability, is poised to gain its fair share of global industrial growth and new opportunities created by “reshoring” initiatives. Low cost en...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

according to recent confidence and comfort index readings, the U.S. consumer is feeling strong and may be up to the task of playing the role of Atlas, who according to Greek mythology, carried the weight of the world on his shoulders. ...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

For stock investors, low rates are a welcome market backdrop, and have helped stocks recover from their December lows. Of course, favorable headlines regarding a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China have helped boost market sentiment, but the fundamental underpinning of low interest rates ...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

Given China’s voracious appetite for dry commodities, the BDI is considered a good leading indicator of Chinese economic output. The signal it is currently sending is that Chinese economic growth may be slower than consensus forecasts. The BDI reached a 5-year high in July of 2018 but is now dow...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

Meanwhile, one sector that has been beaten down over the last year despite a good mix of both defensive and offensive characteristics is the recently created Communications Services Sector. It was formed this fall by S&P Global as part of their GICS (global industry classification system) sector re...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

Despite growing consensus expectations of both slowing international trade and global growth, company analysts have not dramatically ratcheted back their 2019 sales and earnings growth forecasts and are therefore unlikely to raise them if a deal is consummated. ...

November 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Checking the Pulse of the Freight Economy

The shift in economic and market sentiment during the past few weeks has been palpable. The once synchronized global growth chorus has subsided and has been replaced with a negative refrain of global growth deceleration. ...

November 12, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence’s Terry Gardner Quoted in Yahoo Finance – November 12, 2018

“Spreads [S&P 500 earnings yield vs. current levels of interest rates] still favor stocks but the market is looking for more direction on the future of corporate profit growth before making its next move. This is a time to be increasingly selective and focus on companies that are growing market ...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

What’s changed in the backdrop is the calculus on global growth. The U.S.– China tariff and trade battle has cast a pall over the global synchronized economic growth scenario, encouraging the IMF to lower its forecast for global economic growth for this year and next, to 3.7% from 3.9%, and to ...

October 1, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China’s Pain be India’s Gain?

Since 2014, despite some periodic set-backs, the Modi administration has made good progress in its efforts to cut red tape, modernize the Indian economy, and raise living standards for the country’s massive population. Recent reports suggest that trade representatives from India and the U.S. are ...

September 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Freight Economy Remains Strong Despite Tariff Uncertainty

Despite the uncertainty and trade posturing, the S&P Road and Rail sub-index, which contains four railroads and a long-haul trucker, is up almost 22% in the last six months. Financial performance for the group has been steady with earnings per share growth for the index forecasted to climb 40% this...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

The sell-off in Chinese shares, including those listed on U.S. stock exchanges, may provide an attractive buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term view. Despite its challenges, China remains the worlds’ fastest growing economy, according to data provided by the World Bank, and its dome...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

Improving fundamentals and corresponding increases in corporate cash flow should help dividend payors maintain and increase payouts to shareholders in 2018. Shares of companies with track records of consistent and meaningful dividend increases, look poised to outperform in 2018 and deserve a meanin...

March 23, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Where to Hide In A Stormy Environment?

In short, rising trade wars or reciprocal tariffs regardless of what sector they effect, if implemented, make whatever they target more expensive. This adds fuel to the idea that we need to be positioned for inflation down the road....

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