C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Terry Gardner fro...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time. Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence. It is January 18, 2023. I hope your year is off to a good start. The market has [&h...

December 19, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Inflation slows, yields peak, the market pops, and fizzles into the holiday. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 12/19/22

As we prepare for the holiday, the market looks like stale Champagne. There was an initial 900-point pop in the DOW on the better inflation number for November (CPI) at 7.1%. Markets were ready to pop the cork and declare inflation dead. That quickly fizzled when Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered anoth...

December 4, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

When good news is bad news; the case for GOLD – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary 12.2.2022

It’s jobs Friday, and the November data shows the US economy continues to add 200,000-plus new jobs. No slowdown there! That is in line with the stronger than expected Q3 reading for GDP, which was revised up to 2.9% annually. Hourly wages also came in higher than expected, up 0.6% versus ...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

It’s been quite a week. The S&P500 is now up 6% for the week, and the Tech heavy Nasdaq is up 8%. That all happened in 2 days! The Fed set the stage for this week’s October inflation report with its 3rd consecutive increase of 75bps, setting the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of [&he...

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

January 13, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Following the Smart Money May Not Be Such a Good Idea

In the coming weeks investment consultants will meet with their pension, foundation, and endowment clients to discuss calendar year 2019 investment performance and proposed asset allocation changes for 2020. The conversations will likely be made easier by strong 2019 performance across most asset ...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

December 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Uptick in Infrastructure Spending Looms

It’s difficult to handicap which spending bills will be approved in the U.S. Congress in the coming months, especially given the toxic political environment in Washington, D.C. But one bipartisan issue that tops most agendas is the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and the need for an infrastr...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Phase I of the U.S. – China trade deal was announced on Friday to much media, but little stock market, fanfare. The adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may have been in play. In fact, the S&P 500 Index price is up 5.4% in just the past three months, even as tariff deadlines [&helli...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

Is there wisdom in the crowd? Market pundits often express concern about the stock market’s “overcrowded trades”, referring to stocks that are owned by a large preponderance of funds and investors. The implication is that investors who own these widely held names are vulnerable to the whim...

December 2, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Healthy, While the Gap Between Sector Winners and Losers is Widening

Most preliminary reports suggest that Black Friday sales were robust, and that Cyber Monday retail activity is expected to reach a new high. The reports dovetail recent U.S. consumer spending reports which continue to paint a picture of a healthy U.S. consumer. Last Wednesday’s Commerce Depart...

November 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Thanksgiving Dinner Costs are Down. Pass the Turkey!

This week, millions will partake in the time-honored American tradition of the Thanksgiving feast. The origins of the celebration date back to the earliest settlers of the “new continent”, who upon forming the Plymouth Colony, suffered the perils of a harsh winter. With the help of t...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

With the U.S. consumer carrying much of the water for the U.S. and global economies, the market continues to wait for some support from manufacturing. But, to date, the manufacturing cavalry does not look ready to ride. While much of the recent slowdown in U.S. manufacturing can be blamed on t...

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

October 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Patient is in Recovery and the Prognosis for Health Care Stocks Look Good

Health care stocks have been some of the market’s worst performers year-to-date. The S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index is up 6% since Jan 1, 2019, lagging the S&P 500 by over 13%. The sector is tracking ahead of only Energy, which is down ~1.0% for the year. The underperformance comes...

October 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner , Uncategorized

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Running (Away) of the Bulls

If last week’s trade deal optimism carries through, the S&P 500 could make another run at its recent peak. The last high was made on July 26 and was tested and failed in mid-September. But generally, the stock market has traded within a range since February. Technicians will take note of...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

Last week’s economic data releases were market moving events. Traders’ algorithms were spring loaded and poised to react to any signal suggesting the economy was moving in one direction or the other. On Wednesday, before the open, the Department of Labor released its Initial Jobless Claims r...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

Equity investors demonstrated considerable buying restraint over the past several weeks as interest rates flirted with historic lows. In early September, the U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond yield slipped below 1.5%, where it had not been since 2016 and 2012 before that. Historically, as rat...

September 16, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Rotation to Value Looks Unsustainable

The S&P 500 broke back above 3,000 last week and is zeroing in on its prior peak of 3,026 set back in July. All major S&P sectors are generating positive returns on a year-to-date basis. Technology is still leading the performance pack for the year, followed closely by the bond-proxy REI...

September 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Corporate Insiders Increasingly Like the Odds of their Own Stocks

Correlations between insider stock purchases and the company’s stock price are not always tight. Some insiders are better buyers than others. But in aggregate insider purchases can paint an important picture of insider confidence in their own company and stock and whether they are will...

September 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sales Growers in Communications Services and Healthcare Sectors Have the Right Mix

With 2Q19 earnings season mostly in the rear-view mirror, investors and analysts are recalibrating their models to incorporate the recently reported results and refreshed outlook. Despite a slight year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings, S&P 500 earnings per share came in slightly better-...

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

August 19, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Global Growth Engine

The equity markets breathed a sigh of relief on Friday. Most of the economic data releases were positive, treasury bond yields rose, and stocks rallied. The S&P 500 lost ground for the week but improved 1.44% on Friday alone, with economically sensitive sectors like Industrials, Technology a...

August 12, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – This Week’s Suggested Summer Reading List

Terry Gardner is away this week on vacation, so the Weekly Market Comment will resume next week. But given recent market volatility and concerns surrounding Hong Kong and the trade stand-off between the U.S. and China, Terry himself thought it might be helpful to highlight three important WMCs wri...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Industrial Stocks Challenged by Slowing Global Manufacturing Activity

The market playbook was challenged last week. Under the “old rules”, Friday’s release of better-than-expected second quarter US GDP should have nudged up U.S. treasury bond yields and caused gold prices to cool. But the yield on the benchmark U.S 10-Year treasury bond was flat on F...

July 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – In Libra We Trust?

It’s tongue-in-cheek note title, not meant to convey real conviction, but to highlight the issue that in the new economy, even money is being disrupted. David Marcus, former PayPal and Facebook Messenger executive and new head of Calibra, the digital currency consortium organized by Facebook...

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 24, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Interest Rate Cuts May Stave Off Reckoning for Highly Leveraged Companies

One metric we like to watch to help gauge the health of S&P 500 companies is the Interest Coverage Ratio. The ratio measures how easily a company can pay its debt. In aggregate, the Index’s ratio provides insight into the health of corporate balance sheets and supporting cash flow....

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, shrugged off a disappointing payroll report and ongoing concerns about U.S. – China trade relations, to post an impressive 4.4% gain last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned to playing a supporting role in the market’s adv...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

Equity markets tend to thrive during periods of economic stability and visibility and struggle during times of economic and political uncertainty. Last week, as investors were grappling with the challenges associated with China-U.S. trade tensions, the Mexico tariff grenade was tossed into the ten...

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

U.S. – China trade talks, or the lack thereof, continue to dominate business news headlines and are creating an overhang on stock prices. Investors hope that the overhang will be lifted soon, but both the U.S. and China look to be digging in for a protracted battle. President Trump said last w...

May 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Editor’s Note: A month ago we wrote about growing unease among U.S. businesses operating in China. We are recirculating that note this afternoon as trade tensions between the U.S. and China reach a new level. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S., retaliatory tariffs on ...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

May 6, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Labor Productivity Leadership Should Be Embraced

Last week’s U.S. Labor Department report stated that U.S non-farm labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019. That was welcome news for stock market bulls who had been viewing the lack of worker productivity as an obstacle to growth, or as a path to higher uni...

April 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Capital Spending Growth Looks Poised to Reaccelerate

When the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed in December 2017 the consensus expectation was that lower corporate income tax rates, lower tax rates on repatriated overseas capital, and increased incentives for near-term capital investment would spur a durable capital spending cycle in the U.S. Indeed, capi...

April 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – India’s Election May Have Broad Implications for the Global Economy

As U.S. investors evaluate the policy positions of the growing field of candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and attempt to gauge the impact of the recently released Mueller report, the world’s largest election has commenced in India. The first phase of the seven-phase Indian parli...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

Last week’s jobs report seemed to strike the right tone with the stock market. The U.S. Labor Department calculated that March nonfarm payrolls advanced by 196,000 versus an estimate of 175,000, and that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Prior to its release the report was...

March 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The IPO Canary is Still Singing

While investors were lamenting the inversion of the mid-section of the treasury yield curve late last week, traders on the floor of the NYSE were celebrating the revival of denim. The traders’ fashion statement was in honor of the return of Levi Strauss (LEVI) to the public marketplace. The co...

March 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Free Cash Flow Is King

Last week’s U.S. economic data releases sent mixed signals. The U.S. industrial economy continues to slow, as indicated by weaker-than-expected Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. But the consumer economy remains robust, bolstered by low unemployment and persistent consume...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

The better-than-expected trade data out of China last week was downplayed by most economists who suggested that the data may have been distorted by the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism has been rising, particularly in the Chinese equity markets, that a U.S.-China trade d...

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