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June 11, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Inflation peaking? Not quite…

Every release of the consumer price index (CPI) is highly anticipated in the current environment, and today was no exception. May’s CPI was a disappointment to investors, including yours truly, who were looking for a continued gradual decline in the headline inflation rate in line with the previ...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottomed around that same time, clawing back about half of the loss incurr...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook....

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

As our Sector Shifts table demonstrates, the Technology and Consumer Discretionary (dominated by Amazon.com) stocks gained meaningful market share from 2010 to 2017, and along with the new Communications Services stocks, have driven market performance since being reconstituted in mid-2018. ...

July 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – In Libra We Trust?

It’s tongue-in-cheek note title, not meant to convey real conviction, but to highlight the issue that in the new economy, even money is being disrupted. David Marcus, former PayPal and Facebook Messenger executive and new head of Calibra, the digital currency consortium organized by Facebook...

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

We’ve written previously about the longer-term impact of the trade war on sourcing and manufacturing decisions, and our belief that one of the stand-off outcomes will be the re-shoring of manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. over the next several years. But in the meantime, the global economy ...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

Meanwhile, one sector that has been beaten down over the last year despite a good mix of both defensive and offensive characteristics is the recently created Communications Services Sector. It was formed this fall by S&P Global as part of their GICS (global industry classification system) sector re...

September 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The New S&P Sector Construction is Coming, and It Matters

Back in March we highlighted an announcement by S&P Global, Inc. that stated it was realigning three of its eleven S&P sectors, on Sept 28, to more accurately reflect the constituents’ lines of business. The realignment will result in changes to the make-up of the Technology and Consumer Discreti...

July 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Supply-Demand Imbalance Bodes Well for Rebound in Housing Related Stocks

The growth in the pace of housing completions, now at a 1.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), suggests that the U.S. housing market remains under-supplied and is only inching its way back to balance. At the same time, millennials are entering the housing market at a rapid pace, h...

July 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – New S&P Sector Construct Could Create Volatility this Summer (Repost from March 12, 2018)

Followers of the CJL Weekly Market Comment are familiar with our practice of looking below the broader market indices to compare the fundamentals, price performance, and valuations of the 11 different S&P Sectors, 24 Industry Groups and, 157 Sub-Industries. This style of analysis dates back to the o...

April 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation at a Reasonable Price…IRP Investing

The largest R&D spenders generate substantial cash flow that helps fund innovation, and several trade at what we view as reasonable valuations. That is a desirable combination. We call it Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP) investing. Facebook is leading the charge in artificial intelligence t...

April 17, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Regs vs Tech: Then and Now…Lessons from the Past

One thing we have become accustomed to over the years is the fact that dominant companies, which we call Bulldogs at C.J. Lawrence, tend to get sued or attract regulatory scrutiny precisely because they are so successful....

March 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Stumble-Prone Equity Market Remains on Solid Footing

Our outlook for the stock market remains constructive, based on improving economic and equity market fundamentals, but recognizes that the market is prone to stumbles. For long-term investors willing to wade into the market’s volatile waters, the risk-reward ratio remains favorable....

March 23, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Where to Hide In A Stormy Environment?

In short, rising trade wars or reciprocal tariffs regardless of what sector they effect, if implemented, make whatever they target more expensive. This adds fuel to the idea that we need to be positioned for inflation down the road....

March 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – New S&P Sector Construct Could Create Volatility this Summer

January 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Want Blockchain Exposure? Buy a Basket “OF MAGIC”

There will no doubt be “moon shot” start-ups and disruptors that make their founders and owners rich. But for investors seeking a lower risk approach to participation in the new paradigm of blockchain technology, we suggest establishing a basket “OF MAGIC” (Oracle, Facebook, Microsoft, Accen...

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