Inflation Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Terry Gardner fro...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time. Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence. It is January 18, 2023. I hope your year is off to a good start. The market has [&h...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2022 Market Recap and 2023 Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 1/10/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a market recap of 2022 and an outlook on markets and global economies for 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. Happy New Year. Well, we’re happy 2022 is over. In terms of the markets, it was certainly not a good year. If you go through the ...

December 19, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Inflation slows, yields peak, the market pops, and fizzles into the holiday. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 12/19/22

As we prepare for the holiday, the market looks like stale Champagne. There was an initial 900-point pop in the DOW on the better inflation number for November (CPI) at 7.1%. Markets were ready to pop the cork and declare inflation dead. That quickly fizzled when Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered anoth...

December 4, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

When good news is bad news; the case for GOLD – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary 12.2.2022

It’s jobs Friday, and the November data shows the US economy continues to add 200,000-plus new jobs. No slowdown there! That is in line with the stronger than expected Q3 reading for GDP, which was revised up to 2.9% annually. Hourly wages also came in higher than expected, up 0.6% versus ...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

It’s been quite a week. The S&P500 is now up 6% for the week, and the Tech heavy Nasdaq is up 8%. That all happened in 2 days! The Fed set the stage for this week’s October inflation report with its 3rd consecutive increase of 75bps, setting the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of [&he...

October 13, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Keep Calm & Carry On: US Inflation Disappoints, Truss Blinks & US Equities Bounce – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary October 13, 2022

Going into the September inflation report today, the market was already worried about more fallout from the UK after the Bank of England on Tuesday drew a line in the sand that it will only intervene to support UK government bonds until Friday. This sent a clear signal to the UK government and pen...

October 7, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Two steps forward, two steps back. High inflation remains front and center. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 10/7/2022

Markets finished the week up 1.8%. Recent economic data continues to be good for workers and bad for markets. We are still adding jobs at a healthy 250,000+ monthly rate. The unemployment rate remains at a very low 3.5%. This is consistent with tight labor markets and continued inflationary pr...

September 24, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Back to Extreme Oversold Condition – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – 9/23/2022

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the bulls. The S&P500 is back to the June low at 3693, wiping out the strong momentum we saw in August and back to extreme oversold conditions as measured by the relative strength indicator (RSI). The culprit is core inflation or what is often called PCE...

September 2, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Back to Work for Labor Day! Introducing INFLATION PROOF Investing 1.0 – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – September 2, 2022

We had another strong employment report today. August added another 315,000 jobs, ahead of expectations. Labor force participation also rose to 62%, indicating that workers are returning to work. As a result of the higher labor force participation, the unemployment rate rose to a very low 3.7%. This...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

August 3, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Forecasts Will Trend Lower, But That’s OK, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 7.20.22

We've got three key points today that we want to cover, the first being that we want to discuss second-quarter earnings and the likelihood that earnings expectations for this year and next will trend down in the coming months....

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

June 27, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Reversal of Fortune? Dr. Copper pointing to lower inflation ahead. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – June 25, 2022

This post was originally written on June 25, 2022, 2:39 PM EST. The S&P500 was up 6.5% last week. On the sector level, energy was down 2%, and consumer stocks were up 8%, a reversal of fortune to the year-to-date pattern. For the year, energy stocks are the best sector, up 29%, and consumer stoc...

June 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Central Banks Find Inflation Fighting Mojo – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – June 17, 2022

This post was originally written on June 17, 2022, 12:39 PM EST. There may be a silver lining to this week’s market selloff, Central Banks have found their inflation-fighting mojo again! The week started with a carefully placed leak from our Federal Reserve that a 50-basis-point increase (50 bps...

May 18, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Sifting Through the Damage, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 051822

First off, where are we now in this market sell-off versus previous sell-offs? I excluded the financial crisis of 2007, and 2008, because I don't believe that the ingredients for that market decline are consistent with where we are today. I did look then at the past three sell-offs, which included t...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

It's Wednesday, April 22nd. Coming to you from Midtown Manhattan with some brief market commentary as we kick off the first quarter, 2022 earning season in a relatively volatile market. So we've got four points to our call today. First, we want to discuss the current outlook for earnings and interes...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

February 17, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence coming to you on Tuesday, February 15th, from the C.J. Lawrence Global Headquarters here in Midtown Manhattan. I want to give you some perspective on the current state of the stock market and the economy, cove...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Monday, November 22nd, with a brief video on this holiday week, covering three topics. First off, it’s that time of year where we take a look at the American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving di...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

November 11, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Post Election Market Commentary & Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – 11/10/2020 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses his economic outlook post election, the game-changing covid-19 vaccine and its implications for GDP growth in 2021, potential black swan events, worries about inflation and the US Dollar, as well as the debate on growth versus value inves...

September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG

Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon, every...

August 19, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses discusses 6 points: 1) Market nearing a new high; positive fundamentals remain with the crowded trade. 2) Economy- The parade of eye-popping Q2-GDP data is out but GDP outlook looks positive; Inflation – “Fed will tolerate higher infl...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

Equity investors demonstrated considerable buying restraint over the past several weeks as interest rates flirted with historic lows. In early September, the U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond yield slipped below 1.5%, where it had not been since 2016 and 2012 before that. Historically, as rat...

May 6, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Labor Productivity Leadership Should Be Embraced

Last week’s U.S. Labor Department report stated that U.S non-farm labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019. That was welcome news for stock market bulls who had been viewing the lack of worker productivity as an obstacle to growth, or as a path to higher uni...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability. The current environment is providing neither. After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019. But the negative impact of...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

This week, millions of consumers will finish their shopping for the time-honored American tradition, the Thanksgiving Dinner. If Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, handles those duties for his family, he’ll find some interesting data to consider, adding to ...

October 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Is U.S. Economic Growth Reaching a Peak? The Bond Vigilantes May Tell Us.

In the early 1980’s our former Deutsche Bank colleague, Dr. Ed Yardeni, coined the phrase “Bond Vigilantes” to describe bond market reactions to loose fiscal policy. When the federal government threatened to ramp debt-fueled spending, the Bond Vigilantes would ride in, sell treasuries, and p...

September 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Peak Margins? Not Yet.

The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at 3.07% on Friday, up 8 basis points for the week, continuing its recent uptrend. In fact, the 10-year yield is up 22 basis points in the last month. Despite strong demand for treasuries, which tends to suppress yields, the 10-year treasury yiel...

August 6, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Growth Remains Attractive…Comparisons to the “Nifty Fifty” and Internet Bubble Periods Miss the Mark

The sell-off in technology shares at the end of July spurred in a chorus of money managers to suggest that the growth dam had finally broken and to forecast that the performance gap between growth stocks and value stocks would close. Several market pundits cited “excessive” valuations on growth ...

July 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Supply-Demand Imbalance Bodes Well for Rebound in Housing Related Stocks

Estimates of U.S. Households[/caption]Wednesday’s dramatic decline in Facebook’s share price overshadowed another significant sell-off in a housing related stock. Shares of Mohawk Industries (MHK) declined 17.5% in Thursday’s trading session after the company reported 2Q18 results that fell ...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

It’s difficult to identify a singular catalyst for the market’s recent volatility. Whether it’s politics, trade, or corporate stumbles, the equity markets’ reaction to events and news has been swift and pronounced. The large intraday swings in stock prices suggest that traders are shooti...

March 23, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Where to Hide In A Stormy Environment?

As we recover from the 4th snow storm in the North East, markets this week succumbed to its own perfect storm. Five factors brought down the market this week: First, there was some concern about this week’s Fed meeting and how the new Fed Chair Powell would perform in his first live press conferen...

February 20, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Financials Sector is the Baby that Should be Put Back in the Bath

We made the point in a recent Weekly Market Comment that the shrinking US publicly traded company share count could be a contributing factor to the equity market’s long bull run. The same phenomenon can also contribute to stock price volatility on a short-term basis, as witnessed during the last t...

February 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Volatility Returns (Chairman, James Moltz)

This week we are pleased to offer thoughts on the market from our Chairman, James Moltz. Jim launched the Weekly Market Comment at the original CJ. Lawrence back in the early 1970s and authored the piece for several decades. We are fortunate to have his perspectives and are grateful for his lead...

February 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Tug‐of‐War Between Lower Valuations and Faster Earnings Growth Still Skews Towards Growth

There are multiple reasons cited for last week’s equity market blow off. It’s difficult to know which event set the downdraft in motion but the rapid rise in interest rates, after several years of historically low rates, is a good place to start. The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Yield finishe...

January 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Inflation Counter‐Forces in the New Economy

In the previous millennium, strategists and economists would sometimes gauge inflationary pressures by measuring and comparing the prices of New York City taxi medallions versus the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. The price for a NYSE seats, which allowed the limited number of holder...

January 12, 2018
Blog , News & Media

Upcoming Webinar – C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategy & Outlook 2018

On Tuesday, January 23 at 12:00 PM EST, C.J. Lawrence will host a live 60-minute webinar with C.J. Lawrence’s senior partners and portfolio management team – Bernhard Koepp, Terry Gardner, Jr., – to discuss the latest market outlook and investment thesis for 2018. This webinar will set the...

September 25, 2017
Blog

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “Inflation & the Rule of 20” – September 18, 2017

Higher gas prices and housing costs helped push last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading to 0.4%, versus the 0.3% most economists were expecting. Interestingly, it was the medical cost category that restrained the index, growing at the slowest pace since 1965, according to the U.S. Bureau...

Inflation

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