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August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

August 3, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Earnings Forecasts Will Trend Lower, But That’s OK, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 7.20.22

In this video, Terry Gardner shares his thoughts on earnings and interest rates, sector leadership, the outlook for the stock market and economy in late 2022 and 2023, and the benefits of long term investing. ...

June 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Central Banks Find Inflation Fighting Mojo – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – June 17, 2022

Markets on Wednesday rejoiced with a nice broad-based rally once the Fed confirmed the 75bps raise to the Fed Funds rate at its regular meeting. Fed Funds now stand at 1.50-1.75%. Even the Swiss National Banksurprised, raising rates by 50bp, a first in 15 years, lifting negative rates from -0.75% to...

June 11, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Inflation peaking? Not quite…

Every release of the consumer price index (CPI) is highly anticipated in the current environment, and today was no exception. May’s CPI was a disappointment to investors, including yours truly, who were looking for a continued gradual decline in the headline inflation rate in line with the previ...

May 18, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Sifting Through the Damage, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 051822

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottomed around that same time, clawing back about half of the loss incurr...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the "market playbook", and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)....

August 4, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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2Q Earnings Look Great, No Need to Try to Time the Market, Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 8.04.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning....

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys!...

April 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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A Day in the Life of Social Distancing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, describes a typical day in the life of social distancing to illustrate what companies are open for business during the economic shutdown and will emerge stronger after the crisis....

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

As our Sector Shifts table demonstrates, the Technology and Consumer Discretionary (dominated by Amazon.com) stocks gained meaningful market share from 2010 to 2017, and along with the new Communications Services stocks, have driven market performance since being reconstituted in mid-2018. ...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

according to recent confidence and comfort index readings, the U.S. consumer is feeling strong and may be up to the task of playing the role of Atlas, who according to Greek mythology, carried the weight of the world on his shoulders. ...

February 7, 2019
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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The Digital Divide – Part 1 | VIDEO

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence shares his insights and new growth opportunities for the first quarter of 2019. Specific companies mentioned during this video include: Adobe, Alibaba Cloud, ALTA Beauty, Amazon, American Tower, Bank of America, Boston Scientific, Google, J.P, Morg...

February 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Many Will Survive but Only Few Will Thrive in a Healthy U.S. Consumer Economy

In 2003 the Federal Reserve began releasing its Financial Obligations Ratio (FOR) which captures the share of household after-tax income that is obligated to debt repayment (including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loan payments, and credit card interest), including interest and princi...

January 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Revenue Growers Stand Out

Double digit revenue growth has become a market rarity and is impressive in any cycle. As companies report results and adjust forecasts, increased attention should be paid to companies with attractive top-line growth profiles, expanding market share, and strong competitive positions. ...

October 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation on Sale

The recent market downdraft may be creating opportunities for active managers and investors to buy industry leaders and innovators at attractive prices. In April of this year, we authored a note titled Innovation at a Reasonable Price, which highlighted increasing rates of research and development ...

April 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation at a Reasonable Price…IRP Investing

The largest R&D spenders generate substantial cash flow that helps fund innovation, and several trade at what we view as reasonable valuations. That is a desirable combination. We call it Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP) investing. Facebook is leading the charge in artificial intelligence t...

January 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2017 Scoreboard Highlights Consistent Technology Leadership

When we wrote the year-end market summary last year, we noted the high level of sector rotation that took place on a quarterly basis throughout 2016. In 2017, leadership was instead remarkably consistent. Of the major S&P 500 sectors, Technology led all others in three out of four quarters and finis...

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