China Trade Wars Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

Despite the weakness in the underlying freight economy, analysts who track industrial and materials companies remain optimistic. Earnings per share for the S&P Industrials Sector Index and S&P Materials Sector Index are forecasted to grow 17% and 15% respectively in 2020. ...

August 12, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – This Week’s Suggested Summer Reading List

Terry Gardner is away this week on vacation, so the Weekly Market Comment will resume next week. But given recent market volatility and concerns surrounding Hong Kong and the trade stand-off between the U.S. and China, Terry himself thought it might be helpful to highlight three important WMCs writ...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

The market’s risk-off posture has pushed U.S. treasury bond prices higher and yields meaningfully lower. Sliding treasury bond yields, which had previously been viewed as a positive support for stocks are no longer viewed as bullish....

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

We’ve written previously about the longer-term impact of the trade war on sourcing and manufacturing decisions, and our belief that one of the stand-off outcomes will be the re-shoring of manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. over the next several years. But in the meantime, the global economy ...

May 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Editor’s Note: A month ago we wrote about growing unease among U.S. businesses operating in China. We are recirculating that note this afternoon as trade tensions between the U.S. and China reach a new level. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S., retaliatory tariffs on ...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

But the U.S., which has been undergoing its own industrial and manufacturing renaissance, catalyzed by the evolution of low-cost energy production and availability, is poised to gain its fair share of global industrial growth and new opportunities created by “reshoring” initiatives. Low cost en...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

For stock investors, low rates are a welcome market backdrop, and have helped stocks recover from their December lows. Of course, favorable headlines regarding a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China have helped boost market sentiment, but the fundamental underpinning of low interest rates ...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

Given China’s voracious appetite for dry commodities, the BDI is considered a good leading indicator of Chinese economic output. The signal it is currently sending is that Chinese economic growth may be slower than consensus forecasts. The BDI reached a 5-year high in July of 2018 but is now dow...

December 26, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Grinch that Stole Christmas – C.J. Lawrence Special Market Commentary – 12/26/18 by Bernhard Koepp

Looking at each of the 7 selloffs without recessions since 1984, see chart below, all ended with the central bank easing and a favorable environment for stock returns. We are therefore not ready to call this a bear market for stocks....

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

Despite growing consensus expectations of both slowing international trade and global growth, company analysts have not dramatically ratcheted back their 2019 sales and earnings growth forecasts and are therefore unlikely to raise them if a deal is consummated. ...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

What’s changed in the backdrop is the calculus on global growth. The U.S.– China tariff and trade battle has cast a pall over the global synchronized economic growth scenario, encouraging the IMF to lower its forecast for global economic growth for this year and next, to 3.7% from 3.9%, and to ...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

The sell-off in Chinese shares, including those listed on U.S. stock exchanges, may provide an attractive buying opportunity for investors with a longer-term view. Despite its challenges, China remains the worlds’ fastest growing economy, according to data provided by the World Bank, and its dome...

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