Terry Gardner Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

June 21, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Product Cycles Often Trump Market Cycles… C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 6/13/23

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on the 13th of June, Tuesday, coming to you from sunny Midtown Manhattan. There are three points to our call today: First, we want to take a look at product cycle versus market cycle; secondly, we want to talk about how th...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles....

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time....

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Getting Outside, Expensive Turkeys, and US Consumers, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 11.22.22

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the American Farm Bureau’s survey of Thanksgiving dinner costs and examines the health of the U.S. consumer. ...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner shares his thoughts on earnings and interest rates, sector leadership, the outlook for the stock market and economy in late 2022 and 2023, and the benefits of long term investing. ...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

August 3, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Forecasts Will Trend Lower, But That’s OK, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 7.20.22

May 18, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Sifting Through the Damage, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 051822

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

February 17, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses 4Q21 earnings results for the S&P 500, summarizes the macro backdrop for the economy and stocks, shares CJL proprietary work on interest rate cycles, and suggests a portfolio strategy for the next 12-18 months. ...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the "market playbook", and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)....

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

August 4, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

2Q Earnings Look Great, No Need to Try to Time the Market, Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 8.04.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning....

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys!...

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys!...

September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG

Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis....

July 12, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

On Normalized Earnings Stocks are Not Overvalued – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist and Client Advisor, Terry Gardner, introduces the concept of “normalized earnings” and makes the case that, on that basis, the stock market is not over-valued....

May 15, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Looking Around Corners & the “Tilted-V” – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence reviews this cycle’s three market phases, highlights “Whatever it Takes,” laments the lack of leadership from financial stocks, and shares his analysis of consistent sales growers....

May 3, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Leadership Still Lacking; Sustainable Top-Line Growth is Key – YouTube Video & Transcript

April 17, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Markets Recover but Leadership from Financials is Missing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, In this video, Terry Gardner, Portfolio Strategist at C.J. Lawrence, reviews the stock market’s three peaks cycle in dealing with the coronavirus, examines recent economic and corporate data, and addresses the market’s recent leadership....

April 6, 2020
Blog , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi – April 6, 2020

Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss how the coronavirus is impacting markets....

April 4, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

The S&P 500 Will Recover Faster Than the Economy – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence revisits the phases of the Corona Virus impact on the equity markets, reviews recession math and valuation range, and shares proprietary analysis of the S&P 500’s sub-groups and explains why the Index will recover faster than the broader economy....

April 2, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Bottom or Not, 25% Down Has Been a Good Point to Buy Stocks – YouTube Video & Transcript

Here at C.J. Lawrence, we're very focused on the names that we have the highest conviction. We do believe there are going to be select companies and their stocks that come through this stronger than ever....

January 13, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Following the Smart Money May Not Be Such a Good Idea

Pension, foundation, and endowment funds are often referred to as the market’s “smart money”, owing to their resources and expertise, and the smart money has been consistently reducing equity exposure to fund entrée into new and diverse asset categories. To date, returns suggest that betting...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

December 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Uptick in Infrastructure Spending Looms

Investors who bought into the infrastructure theme previously have been disappointed. Despite the growing need for infrastructure investment, most related stocks have lagged the broader indices. The S&P Materials Sector, which represents chemicals, composite, aggregates, and metals and mining comp...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Our CJL Rule of 20 tells us that the sum of the forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 added to the annual CPI core inflation rate should equal about 20. The current reading is 20.1, which sounds about right. Therefore, for stocks to move higher without violating the Rule, the “E” portion of the ...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

As our Sector Shifts table demonstrates, the Technology and Consumer Discretionary (dominated by Amazon.com) stocks gained meaningful market share from 2010 to 2017, and along with the new Communications Services stocks, have driven market performance since being reconstituted in mid-2018. ...

December 2, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Healthy, While the Gap Between Sector Winners and Losers is Widening

The U.S. consumer is healthy and living within his/her means and that should be positive for consumer related stocks. But wide gaps are forming between those with cutting edge business models and those without. Passive investors in the sector may wind up with average returns, while active investor...

November 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Thanksgiving Dinner Costs are Down. Pass the Turkey!

This week, millions will partake in the time-honored American tradition of the Thanksgiving feast. The origins of the celebration date back to the earliest settlers of the “new continent”, who upon forming the Plymouth Colony, suffered the perils of a harsh winter. With the help of t...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

Despite the weakness in the underlying freight economy, analysts who track industrial and materials companies remain optimistic. Earnings per share for the S&P Industrials Sector Index and S&P Materials Sector Index are forecasted to grow 17% and 15% respectively in 2020. ...

November 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Technology Sector Supports Higher S&P 500 Profit Margins

Technology sector constituents are eating their own cooking, helping to increase productivity and expand margins of their customers, but doing so in-house as well. The sector accounts for the largest weight within the S&P 500 Index so its strength gives support to the broader index’s margin expan...

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

October 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Patient is in Recovery and the Prognosis for Health Care Stocks Look Good

Investors may find the current Health Care Sector backdrop enticing, with opportunities across the risk spectrum. Cutting edge companies are now trading near historic low valuations, presenting patient investors with attractive entry points. The anti-health care company rhetoric may be at a fevere...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

The direction of absolute U.S. Treasury bond yields will offer important insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, the direction of inflation, and investor risk appetite. But yield spreads are another useful tool in gauging the health of U.S. rated companies and their risks related to the di...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

The relationship between price-earnings multiples and inflation is captured in the C.J. Lawrence “Rule of 20” which Jim devised in the 1980s. The Rule suggests that adding the current price-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 to the annual rate of inflation should approximate 20, which is the 50-...

September 16, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Rotation to Value Looks Unsustainable

We continue to favor stocks of growth companies that drive their own fate and grow market share regardless of economic conditions. ...

September 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Corporate Insiders Increasingly Like the Odds of their Own Stocks

Correlations between insider stock purchases and the company’s stock price are not always tight. Some insiders are better buyers than others. But in aggregate insider purchases can paint an important picture of insider confidence in their own company and stock and whether they are will...

September 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sales Growers in Communications Services and Healthcare Sectors Have the Right Mix

Among the S&P 500 Index sectors, Communications Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary have been delivering impressive sales growth year-to-date and are expected to outpace the S&P 500 again next year....

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

August 19, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Global Growth Engine

Confidence among most U.S. households remains high despite the recent equity market volatility and negative trade headlines. Elevated home prices, low unemployment, and marginally higher wages at home may be offsetting global macro concerns. ...

August 12, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – This Week’s Suggested Summer Reading List

Terry Gardner is away this week on vacation, so the Weekly Market Comment will resume next week. But given recent market volatility and concerns surrounding Hong Kong and the trade stand-off between the U.S. and China, Terry himself thought it might be helpful to highlight three important WMCs writ...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Industrial Stocks Challenged by Slowing Global Manufacturing Activity

The market playbook was challenged last week. Under the “old rules”, Friday’s release of better-than-expected second quarter US GDP should have nudged up U.S. treasury bond yields and caused gold prices to cool. But the yield on the benchmark U.S 10-Year treasury bond was flat on F...

July 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – In Libra We Trust?

It’s tongue-in-cheek note title, not meant to convey real conviction, but to highlight the issue that in the new economy, even money is being disrupted. David Marcus, former PayPal and Facebook Messenger executive and new head of Calibra, the digital currency consortium organized by Facebook...

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

Terry Gardner

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