Bond Market

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottomed around that same time, clawing back about half of the loss incurr...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

A moderation of inflation would certainly be welcome if the Fed is to orchestrate a soft landing in the US Economy and avoid stagflation. One thing we have learned from history, severe oil spikes create interesting entry points for stocks in near term. ...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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More Volatility Ahead…

It goes without saying, there is unprecedented pressure on Putin to change course in the coming weeks or risk complete economic collapse and isolation. We remain patient regarding our portfolio positioning. ...

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probably scenario going into 2022. (We remind our investors that during time...

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February 28, 2022

Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

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Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. ...

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February 25, 2022

Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

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Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part II

After indiscriminate selling at the open of the market this morning, the Nasdaq and then the broader market staged quite a dramatic reversal and closed up 1.5% for the S&P500 and the Tech heavy Nasdaq up 3.5%....

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February 24, 2022

Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

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Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part I

Today the market is pricing in the potential market disruption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the disputed territories. ...

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August 5, 2019

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

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June 17, 2019

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

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May 13, 2019

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

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March 4, 2019

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

For stock investors, low rates are a welcome market backdrop, and have helped stocks recover from their December lows. Of course, favorable headlines regarding a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China have helped boost market sentiment, but the fundamental underpinning of low interest rates ...

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February 11, 2019

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Market and Stock Analysts in Sync on Slower Growth

The bond market and stock analysts are anticipating slow growth in the year ahead. But the market is starting to give signals that earnings growth expectations are bottoming. Companies with limited overseas sales exposure are expected to grow much faster than those with considerable foreign sales ...

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June 18, 2018

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

Consecutive multi-year revenue growth, above 4.0% annually, has historically been a strong underpinning for stock prices. Over the past 25 years, there have been three periods when the S&P 500 produced 4.0%+ revenue growth for three or more consecutive years. During those periods the average annua...

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June 4, 2018

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Declining prices and a limited ability to replace higher yielding securities with equivalent yields is symptomatic of the challenges facing asset allocators in rising rate environments. Investors looking to rebalance and reallocate balanced portfolios towards bonds may instead want to consider cash...

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February 12, 2018

Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Volatility Returns (Chairman, James Moltz)

The abrupt rise in stock market volatility is being driven by a growing concern that recently enacted fiscal stimulus will overheat the economy bringing with it inflation, higher interest rates and federal funding issues. The 10% correction in the major U.S. indices is testimony to the market’s pe...

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