Bond Market Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

This post was originally written on March 18, 2022, 6:59 PM EST. Markets ended the week on a friendlier note, up 6.2% for the week, back to the 200-day moving average for the broader market (S&P500) while the Nasdaq has a long way to go to repair some of the technical damage it suffered since [&...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period. Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

This post was originally written on March 4, 2022, 6:20 PM EST. Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probabiltiy scenario going into 2022. (We rem...

February 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This post was originally written on February 28, 2022, 6:01 PM EST. This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Russian banks’ ability to use the European payments system (SWIFT) were severely curtailed. Russian assets a...

February 25, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part II

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022. After indiscriminate selling at the open of the market this morning, the Nasdaq and then the broader market staged quite a dramatic reversal and closed up 1.5% for the S&P500 and the Tech heavy Nasdaq up 3.5%. What did we learn from today: M...

February 24, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part I

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022 at 9:39 AM EST. Today the market is pricing in the potential market disruption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the disputed territories. Despite the Biden Administration’s unprecedented transparency regarding US intelligence regar...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Market and Stock Analysts in Sync on Slower Growth

Last week’s announcement from the European Commission that it had lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.9% to 1.3% broke a string of positive events and announcements that had helped lift stock prices from their December lows. Better-than-feared 4Q18 earnings results ...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

June 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Rising bond yields are often cited as an important risk to equity prices. Not only do higher interest rates render yields on fixed income instruments more competitive with stock earnings and dividend yields, but higher interest rates raise the equity risk premium that investors absorb when owning st...

February 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Volatility Returns (Chairman, James Moltz)

This week we are pleased to offer thoughts on the market from our Chairman, James Moltz. Jim launched the Weekly Market Comment at the original CJ. Lawrence back in the early 1970s and authored the piece for several decades. We are fortunate to have his perspectives and are grateful for his lead...

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