Bond Market

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

For stock investors, low rates are a welcome market backdrop, and have helped stocks recover from their December lows. Of course, favorable headlines regarding a pending trade deal between the U.S. and China have helped boost market sentiment, but the fundamental underpinning of low interest rates ...

February 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Market and Stock Analysts in Sync on Slower Growth

The bond market and stock analysts are anticipating slow growth in the year ahead. But the market is starting to give signals that earnings growth expectations are bottoming. Companies with limited overseas sales exposure are expected to grow much faster than those with considerable foreign sales ...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

Consecutive multi-year revenue growth, above 4.0% annually, has historically been a strong underpinning for stock prices. Over the past 25 years, there have been three periods when the S&P 500 produced 4.0%+ revenue growth for three or more consecutive years. During those periods the average annua...

June 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Declining prices and a limited ability to replace higher yielding securities with equivalent yields is symptomatic of the challenges facing asset allocators in rising rate environments. Investors looking to rebalance and reallocate balanced portfolios towards bonds may instead want to consider cash...

February 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Volatility Returns (Chairman, James Moltz)

The abrupt rise in stock market volatility is being driven by a growing concern that recently enacted fiscal stimulus will overheat the economy bringing with it inflation, higher interest rates and federal funding issues. The 10% correction in the major U.S. indices is testimony to the market’s pe...

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