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September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG
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Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis....

August 19, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Climbing the Wall of Worry – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses discusses 6 points: 1) Market nearing a new high; positive fundamentals remain with the crowded trade. 2) Economy- The parade of eye-popping Q2-GDP data is out but GDP outlook looks positive; Inflation – “Fed will tolerate higher infl...

August 19, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Investments , Manage , The Dynamic Advisor - David Gallacher
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Actively Manage Your Investments, Avoid A Horror Show – by David Gallacher – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, David Gallacher, CFA discusses the importance of actively managing your investments, particularly in this age of such uncertainty....

July 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Mid-Year Update & Outlook – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence provides a mid-year update & outlook for 2020. C.J. Lawrence is a New York based investment adviser providing platinum level service and investment portfolio customization to individuals, families, and institutions. With a legacy that dates to 1864...

July 12, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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On Normalized Earnings Stocks are Not Overvalued – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist and Client Advisor, Terry Gardner, introduces the concept of “normalized earnings” and makes the case that, on that basis, the stock market is not over-valued....

C.J. Lawrence’s Bulldog Portfolio Sponsored by Advisors Asset Management Surpasses $1 Billion in Sales

C.J. Lawrence® a leading investment advisor, in partnership with Advisors Asset Management (AAM), announced today that its Bulldog Portfolio exceeded $1 billion in cumulative sales....

May 15, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Looking Around Corners & the “Tilted-V” – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence reviews this cycle’s three market phases, highlights “Whatever it Takes,” laments the lack of leadership from financial stocks, and shares his analysis of consistent sales growers....

May 8, 2020
Blog , The Dynamic Advisor - David Gallacher
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Careful Stock Selection is the Best Treatment in Today’s Marke – YouTube Video & Transcript

May 3, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Leadership Still Lacking; Sustainable Top-Line Growth is Key – YouTube Video & Transcript

April 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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A Day in the Life of Social Distancing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, describes a typical day in the life of social distancing to illustrate what companies are open for business during the economic shutdown and will emerge stronger after the crisis....

April 28, 2020
Blog , News & Media
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N.Y. Investment Management Firm Launches COVID-19 Campaign to Support Long Islanders

To respond to the needs of the community and to galvanize individuals ready to assist, New York-based investment management boutique, C.J. Lawrence, has launched a campaign to provide matching funds for local food banks and hospitals that are in desperate need of support....

April 17, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Markets Recover but Leadership from Financials is Missing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, In this video, Terry Gardner, Portfolio Strategist at C.J. Lawrence, reviews the stock market’s three peaks cycle in dealing with the coronavirus, examines recent economic and corporate data, and addresses the market’s recent leadership....

April 6, 2020
Blog , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi – April 6, 2020

Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss how the coronavirus is impacting markets....

April 4, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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The S&P 500 Will Recover Faster Than the Economy – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence revisits the phases of the Corona Virus impact on the equity markets, reviews recession math and valuation range, and shares proprietary analysis of the S&P 500’s sub-groups and explains why the Index will recover faster than the broader economy....

April 2, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Bottom or Not, 25% Down Has Been a Good Point to Buy Stocks – YouTube Video & Transcript

Here at C.J. Lawrence, we're very focused on the names that we have the highest conviction. We do believe there are going to be select companies and their stocks that come through this stronger than ever....

March 22, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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Fiscal Response Larger Than in 2008 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence's CEO gives an update on the massive fiscal package being discussed on Capitol Hill in response to the economic shutdown and what we are watching in the week ahead....

February 19, 2020
Blog , The Dynamic Advisor - David Gallacher
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Building Wealth Over the Decades – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, David Gallacher, CFA - Partner and Portfolio Manager at C.J. Lawrence, takes a look back at the last several decades of the stock market from a general perspective. David also talks about the need to take a long-term approach to the process of investing and building a retirement nest ...

January 13, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Following the Smart Money May Not Be Such a Good Idea

Pension, foundation, and endowment funds are often referred to as the market’s “smart money”, owing to their resources and expertise, and the smart money has been consistently reducing equity exposure to fund entrée into new and diverse asset categories. To date, returns suggest that betting...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

December 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Uptick in Infrastructure Spending Looms

Investors who bought into the infrastructure theme previously have been disappointed. Despite the growing need for infrastructure investment, most related stocks have lagged the broader indices. The S&P Materials Sector, which represents chemicals, composite, aggregates, and metals and mining comp...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Our CJL Rule of 20 tells us that the sum of the forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 added to the annual CPI core inflation rate should equal about 20. The current reading is 20.1, which sounds about right. Therefore, for stocks to move higher without violating the Rule, the “E” portion of the ...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

As our Sector Shifts table demonstrates, the Technology and Consumer Discretionary (dominated by Amazon.com) stocks gained meaningful market share from 2010 to 2017, and along with the new Communications Services stocks, have driven market performance since being reconstituted in mid-2018. ...

December 2, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Healthy, While the Gap Between Sector Winners and Losers is Widening

The U.S. consumer is healthy and living within his/her means and that should be positive for consumer related stocks. But wide gaps are forming between those with cutting edge business models and those without. Passive investors in the sector may wind up with average returns, while active investor...

November 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Thanksgiving Dinner Costs are Down. Pass the Turkey!

This week, millions will partake in the time-honored American tradition of the Thanksgiving feast. The origins of the celebration date back to the earliest settlers of the “new continent”, who upon forming the Plymouth Colony, suffered the perils of a harsh winter. With the help of t...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

Despite the weakness in the underlying freight economy, analysts who track industrial and materials companies remain optimistic. Earnings per share for the S&P Industrials Sector Index and S&P Materials Sector Index are forecasted to grow 17% and 15% respectively in 2020. ...

November 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Technology Sector Supports Higher S&P 500 Profit Margins

Technology sector constituents are eating their own cooking, helping to increase productivity and expand margins of their customers, but doing so in-house as well. The sector accounts for the largest weight within the S&P 500 Index so its strength gives support to the broader index’s margin expan...

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

October 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Patient is in Recovery and the Prognosis for Health Care Stocks Look Good

Investors may find the current Health Care Sector backdrop enticing, with opportunities across the risk spectrum. Cutting edge companies are now trading near historic low valuations, presenting patient investors with attractive entry points. The anti-health care company rhetoric may be at a fevere...

October 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner , Uncategorized
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Running (Away) of the Bulls

Recent surveys have shown a steady decline in bullish outlooks among participants, with last week’s reading hovering just above 20%. That compares to a long-term historical average of 38.1%. The current bullish reading is the lowest since May of 2016 and is approaching a negative two standard d...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

The direction of absolute U.S. Treasury bond yields will offer important insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, the direction of inflation, and investor risk appetite. But yield spreads are another useful tool in gauging the health of U.S. rated companies and their risks related to the di...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

The relationship between price-earnings multiples and inflation is captured in the C.J. Lawrence “Rule of 20” which Jim devised in the 1980s. The Rule suggests that adding the current price-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 to the annual rate of inflation should approximate 20, which is the 50-...

September 16, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Rotation to Value Looks Unsustainable

We continue to favor stocks of growth companies that drive their own fate and grow market share regardless of economic conditions. ...

September 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Corporate Insiders Increasingly Like the Odds of their Own Stocks

Correlations between insider stock purchases and the company’s stock price are not always tight. Some insiders are better buyers than others. But in aggregate insider purchases can paint an important picture of insider confidence in their own company and stock and whether they are will...

September 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sales Growers in Communications Services and Healthcare Sectors Have the Right Mix

Among the S&P 500 Index sectors, Communications Services, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary have been delivering impressive sales growth year-to-date and are expected to outpace the S&P 500 again next year....

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

August 19, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Global Growth Engine

Confidence among most U.S. households remains high despite the recent equity market volatility and negative trade headlines. Elevated home prices, low unemployment, and marginally higher wages at home may be offsetting global macro concerns. ...

August 12, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – This Week’s Suggested Summer Reading List

Terry Gardner is away this week on vacation, so the Weekly Market Comment will resume next week. But given recent market volatility and concerns surrounding Hong Kong and the trade stand-off between the U.S. and China, Terry himself thought it might be helpful to highlight three important WMCs writ...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Industrial Stocks Challenged by Slowing Global Manufacturing Activity

The market playbook was challenged last week. Under the “old rules”, Friday’s release of better-than-expected second quarter US GDP should have nudged up U.S. treasury bond yields and caused gold prices to cool. But the yield on the benchmark U.S 10-Year treasury bond was flat on F...

July 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – In Libra We Trust?

It’s tongue-in-cheek note title, not meant to convey real conviction, but to highlight the issue that in the new economy, even money is being disrupted. David Marcus, former PayPal and Facebook Messenger executive and new head of Calibra, the digital currency consortium organized by Facebook...

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 24, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Interest Rate Cuts May Stave Off Reckoning for Highly Leveraged Companies

One metric we like to watch to help gauge the health of S&P 500 companies is the Interest Coverage Ratio. The ratio measures how easily a company can pay its debt. In aggregate, the Index’s ratio provides insight into the health of corporate balance sheets and supporting cash flow....

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

Equity analysts have been slow to lower earnings forecasts for this and next, but the bond market is already signaling meaningfully slower growth ahead, catalyzed by lower global trade activity....

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

The market’s risk-off posture has pushed U.S. treasury bond prices higher and yields meaningfully lower. Sliding treasury bond yields, which had previously been viewed as a positive support for stocks are no longer viewed as bullish....

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

We’ve written previously about the longer-term impact of the trade war on sourcing and manufacturing decisions, and our belief that one of the stand-off outcomes will be the re-shoring of manufacturing capacity back to the U.S. over the next several years. But in the meantime, the global economy ...

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