C.J. Lawrence Archives - Page 3 of 4 - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 24, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Interest Rate Cuts May Stave Off Reckoning for Highly Leveraged Companies

One metric we like to watch to help gauge the health of S&P 500 companies is the Interest Coverage Ratio. The ratio measures how easily a company can pay its debt. In aggregate, the Index’s ratio provides insight into the health of corporate balance sheets and supporting cash flow....

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, shrugged off a disappointing payroll report and ongoing concerns about U.S. – China trade relations, to post an impressive 4.4% gain last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned to playing a supporting role in the market’s adv...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

Equity markets tend to thrive during periods of economic stability and visibility and struggle during times of economic and political uncertainty. Last week, as investors were grappling with the challenges associated with China-U.S. trade tensions, the Mexico tariff grenade was tossed into the ten...

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

U.S. – China trade talks, or the lack thereof, continue to dominate business news headlines and are creating an overhang on stock prices. Investors hope that the overhang will be lifted soon, but both the U.S. and China look to be digging in for a protracted battle. President Trump said last w...

May 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Editor’s Note: A month ago we wrote about growing unease among U.S. businesses operating in China. We are recirculating that note this afternoon as trade tensions between the U.S. and China reach a new level. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S., retaliatory tariffs on ...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

May 9, 2019
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Market’s Obsession with Tariffs by Bernhard Koepp

At C.J. Lawrence we are spending less time in our investment process trying to second guess the outcome of the trade war between the US and China but more on finding interesting investment opportunities in what we call “The Digital Divide”. We are focused on larger companies, which we call Bulld...

May 6, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Labor Productivity Leadership Should Be Embraced

Last week’s U.S. Labor Department report stated that U.S non-farm labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019. That was welcome news for stock market bulls who had been viewing the lack of worker productivity as an obstacle to growth, or as a path to higher uni...

April 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Capital Spending Growth Looks Poised to Reaccelerate

When the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed in December 2017 the consensus expectation was that lower corporate income tax rates, lower tax rates on repatriated overseas capital, and increased incentives for near-term capital investment would spur a durable capital spending cycle in the U.S. Indeed, capi...

April 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – India’s Election May Have Broad Implications for the Global Economy

As U.S. investors evaluate the policy positions of the growing field of candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and attempt to gauge the impact of the recently released Mueller report, the world’s largest election has commenced in India. The first phase of the seven-phase Indian parli...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

Last week’s jobs report seemed to strike the right tone with the stock market. The U.S. Labor Department calculated that March nonfarm payrolls advanced by 196,000 versus an estimate of 175,000, and that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Prior to its release the report was...

March 25, 2019
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Digital Divide – Part 2 | VIDEO

In his first presentation, The Digital Divide – Part I, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence shared new growth opportunities through digital transformation, blockchain technology, and AI. In the Digital Divide – Part II, he goes a lot deeper into companies on the leading edge and talks a...

March 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The IPO Canary is Still Singing

While investors were lamenting the inversion of the mid-section of the treasury yield curve late last week, traders on the floor of the NYSE were celebrating the revival of denim. The traders’ fashion statement was in honor of the return of Levi Strauss (LEVI) to the public marketplace. The co...

March 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Free Cash Flow Is King

Last week’s U.S. economic data releases sent mixed signals. The U.S. industrial economy continues to slow, as indicated by weaker-than-expected Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. But the consumer economy remains robust, bolstered by low unemployment and persistent consume...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

The better-than-expected trade data out of China last week was downplayed by most economists who suggested that the data may have been distorted by the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism has been rising, particularly in the Chinese equity markets, that a U.S.-China trade d...

February 7, 2019
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Digital Divide – Part 1 | VIDEO

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence shares his insights and new growth opportunities for the first quarter of 2019. Specific companies mentioned during this video include: Adobe, Alibaba Cloud, ULTA Beauty, Amazon, American Tower, Bank of America, Boston Scientific, Google, J.P, Morg...

January 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Revenue Growers Stand Out

This coming week will be an important one for earnings watchers. 126 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report 4Q18 results, including bellwethers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. So far, fourth quarter reports are coming in close to plan. Of the 110 companies that have repor...

January 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Outperformance May Be Found in Unlikely Places

The stock market is off to a good start in 2019. The rally began the day after Christmas and has continued through the first few weeks of January. Investors expecting a Santa Claus rally in December had been sorely disappointed by the lump of coal they received instead. But Santa l...

January 14, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Individual Investors Sell Stock and Bond Funds, While Institutional Investors Shun Stocks

Outflows from domestic equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) accelerated into year-end 2018. According to data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), domestic equity funds experienced outflows of $105.5 billion in 2018, $30 billion of which flowed out in the fourth quarter. ...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 26, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Grinch that Stole Christmas – C.J. Lawrence Special Market Commentary – 12/26/18 by Bernhard Koepp

A perfect storm of policy missteps is to blame for the current 20% market correction off the October high. The main culprits are: Unresolved trade dispute with China Fed Tightening/Miscommunication Government shutdown over border wall Trump cabinet resignations Treasury miscommunication re banks’ ...

December 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability. The current environment is providing neither. After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019. But the negative impact of...

December 16, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Named Top Guns Manager and Mentioned in Benzinga

C.J. Lawrence Named Top Guns Manager by Informa Investment Solutions Article Link: https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/18/12/r12856135/c-j-lawrence-named-top-guns-manager-by-informa-investment-solutions C.J. Lawrence, an investment management boutique based in New York City, today announced tha...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

The stock market’s recent swings have been dramatic. On several occasions the S&P 500 has completed a round-trip move of more than 3% in a single session. Last week the Index reached a high of 2,800 but finished the week at 2,623, down 6.3% from the intra-week high and down 4.6% for the week. ...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

The trade détente between the United States and China may provide temporary relief from the negative sentiment around global trade. Whether the dialogue can transition into an actual agreement will play out over the next several weeks. But to date, despite growing consensus expectations of both slo...

November 22, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Recognizes Leadership Team for Significant Charitable Contributions

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE C.J. Lawrence Recognizes Leadership Team for Significant Charitable Contributions Managing partners Bernhard Koepp, Terry Gardner are acknowledged for their dedicated advocacy of The Opera Foundation, Marine Toys for Tots Foundation and Becker/Gambles Music Fund, respectively. ...

November 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 On Track for “Quiet” Year Despite Spike in VIX

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOE) developed and launched the Market Volatility Index (VIX) in 1993, based on the Sigma Index and methodology created by Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai in 1986. Today it is a commonly referred to as the “fear gauge” because of the perception that higher volati...

October 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation on Sale

The recent market sell-off has investors questioning their allocation strategies and the underpinnings of the bull market in stocks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is now down 0.56%, after being up 11.2% at its September peak. The Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary sectors were j...

October 25, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence CEO Ranks Global Digital Transformation as Most Significant Growth Opportunity for Large Cap Investors

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE C.J. Lawrence CEO Ranks Global Digital Transformation as Most Significant Growth Opportunity for Large Cap Investors CEO Bernhard Koepp presented his ‘Bulldog’ philosophy and findings at the 2018 Advisors Asset Management Summit in Chicago October 19, 2018 (NEW YORK, N.Y.) ...

October 1, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China’s Pain be India’s Gain?

By many accounts, the pace of growth of the Chinese economy has been slowing over the past two quarters and the Chinese government is considering new sources of stimulus to help the country sustain its 6.5% target rate of GDP growth. The imposition of import tariffs on many Chinese goods destined fo...

September 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Valuations and Earnings Growth Play Tug-of-War in Earnings-Driven Markets

Better-than-expected economic data released last week did little to buoy stock prices. The 49-year low in unemployment claims, impressive increase in the ISM non-manufacturing Index, jump in non-defense capital goods orders, and 2.9% year/year growth in wages all failed to propel the market higher...

August 27, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Irrational Exuberance? No. Healthy Skepticism.

According to most conventional measures, the current bull market in stocks has now earned the moniker as the “longest bull market in history”. Most peg the beginning of the current bull run to March of 2009. Since then, the S&P 500 Index has risen over 320%. That falls short of the previous ...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

May 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Growth Stocks Reaccelerate

On a relative basis, it has been a challenging decade for value investing practitioners. Since January of 2009, the S&P 500 Growth Index has delivered a 326% total return, while the S&P 500 Value Index returned 212% during the same period. Definitions of what constitutes value stocks and...

May 21, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Healthy U.S. Consumer is Bullish for Consumer Discretionary Sector Leaders

After a difficult second half of 2017, the S&P Consumer Discretionary sector index has staged an impressive comeback. In the past six months the sector price index is up 12.1%, 6.9% ahead of the broader S&P 500 Index. Over the past several years, the bull-bear battles within the sector h...

May 14, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Margin Expansion Suggests Current Business Cycle Has Legs

In the late stages of a business cycle it is typical to see profit margins contract in the face of rising input costs and strained revenue growth. But over the past decade, U.S. business efficiency improvements have helped companies avoid the deep margin troughs of past cycles, and sustain histori...

May 7, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Falling Down on the Multiple Staircase

S&P 500 earnings per share estimates (EPS) for 2018 have increased 8.8% since the beginning of the year, and look to be heading higher. 2019 estimates have climbed by about the same amount. The Index price, however, is not following suit, and is down slightly (-.38%) year-to-date. The road...

April 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Rising Rates Provide Headwind, not Barrier, for Stocks

Last week’s market action was noteworthy for its flowing cross-currents. Economic and corporate earnings reports were particularly strong, but for bulls, the equity market’s reaction was disappointing. The S&P 500 Index finished the week close to flat, versus the prior week’s close. Ma...

April 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation at a Reasonable Price…IRP Investing

For decades, U.S. corporate research and development (R&D) spending was dominated by automotive and pharmaceutical companies. In the 1960s and 1970s, as the big-3 auto companies became embroiled in market share wars amongst themselves, and later versus foreign auto manufacturers, research and ...

April 17, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Regs vs Tech: Then and Now…Lessons from the Past

One thing we have become accustomed to over the years is the fact that dominant companies, which we call Bulldogs at C.J. Lawrence, tend to get sued or attract regulatory scrutiny precisely because they are so successful. Microsoft was one of the first to attract such scrutiny back in 1992, when the...

April 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Cash Flow on the Rise

A once highly anticipated technology sales pipeline report was released on Wednesday with little fanfare. Worldwide shipments of traditional personal computers (desktops, notebooks, and workstations) in 1Q18 were equal to last year’s level, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) W...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

It’s difficult to identify a singular catalyst for the market’s recent volatility. Whether it’s politics, trade, or corporate stumbles, the equity markets’ reaction to events and news has been swift and pronounced. The large intraday swings in stock prices suggest that traders are shooti...

January 17, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Death of “New Normal” – Preparing for Normal

The term, New Normal became the new paradigm in business and economics to describe the financial environment in the wake of the 2008 crisis and the global recession that followed. Mohammed El-Erian, the then head of PIMCO, first used the term in 2010 in a lecture titled “Navigating the New Nor...

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