Insights – Page 4 – C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

December 28, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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“US GDP Moves Above Potential” – Implications for Markets

The new Federal Reserve Board, led by Jerome Powell, will be paying close attention to this, given rates are still abnormally low. It also means the unemployment rate should continue to decline, and the lack of supply of labor and the rising participation rate should lead to higher wages. This is a...

December 20, 2017
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“A Perfect Year” – Outlook for 2018

As of this writing, 2017 is the first perfect year where the S&P500 had a positive return every month for the entire year. 2017 also coincides with the US Output Gap swinging back to the long-term trend line which we haven’t seen for a decade meaning that the economy is back on track. Economies ar...

December 18, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Time to Rotate to Value Stocks?…Not So Fast

Over the last 15 years, growth stocks have traded at a 1.21 relative P/E to value, having peaked at 1.44 and troughed at .91. That ratio now stands at 1.28 and has been declining since 2013. The same holds true for price/book value, return on equity, and price/earnings growth (PEG) relative comparis...

December 11, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Cash Can be King Even When You’re Bullish

The point is that corrections and rotations, and the reactions to them, during periods of economic stability and/or expansion, are happening within increasingly compressed durations. Investors looking opportunistically for attractive entry points to high conviction ideas now have narrow windows in w...

December 7, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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Great News for New York’s Special Needs Families – 529 ABLE Program Goes Live

The “ABLE” moniker stands for “Achieving a Better Life Experience”. The program launched in October (2017) and is open for enrollment. Families with special needs members can now enjoy many of the same savings and investment benefits that those with 529 College Savings Plans enjoy. To be ...

December 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Improving Earnings Growth Forecasts Suggest the Bull May be Sharpening His Horns

According to Tuesday’s release from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) the global economy is now growing at its fastest pace since 2010, with the upturn becoming increasingly synchronized across countries. The OECD now forecasts 3.7% global economic growth in 2018. At...

November 27, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sector Watch: Consumer Staples’ Premium Valuation at Risk

The Consumer Staples sector has historically been viewed as a safe port in a market storm and a key component sector to diversified portfolios. The thesis has held that the consistency of sales and relatively high dividend yields of sector constituents are the defensive characteristics sought by inv...

November 20, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Talking Turkey – Deflation at Dinner

While many will disagree on politics, the appropriateness of Uncle Joe’s humor, and the dinner table seating arrangements, the overwhelming consensus is that turkey, with all the trimmings, is the mainstay of the Thanksgiving feast. The cost of that feast is projected to be down 1.5% from last yea...

November 14, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – China’s and India’s Economic Growth Prospects are Good for Equity Prices

As the US House of Representatives and Senate work through the machinations of domestic tax reform, President Trump has been visiting the globe’s fastest growing region, discussing trade relations, and meeting with regional heads of state. ...

November 7, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Economy is Supportive of Accelerating S&P 500 Top-Line Growth

Reported S&P 500 sales per share growth, for 3Q17, has been encouraging. With over 80% of constituents having reported results, S&P 500 sales are coming in 5.8% ahead of last year’s levels. ...

October 31, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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American Renaissance in Manufacturing: Fact or Fiction?

Those of you who still read the daily newspapers in print, will have noticed a small article buried away in the back pages of the Wall Street Journal on October 3rd which did not get enough attention in my opinion. The title was “Manufacturing Hits a 13-Year High”. This fact did not escape our ...

October 30, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – REIT Underperformance Likely to Persist

“Bond proxy” equities struggled last week as the benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 2.42% (from 2.06% in early September) reinforcing fears among bond proxy holders that rising interest rates will compete more competently for income seekers. For the week, the Telecom, Real Est...

October 25, 2017
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Applying The Long Wave in the Age of Disruptors – What Does This Mean for Stock Picking?

In the early 1920s, Russian Economist Nikolai Kondratiev developed the concept of the long wave when applying technological change to traditional economic cycles. He observed that these periods of long waves can range from forty to sixty years and consist of alternating intervals between high sector...

October 23, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Goldilocks’ Porridge Made With Copper and Gold

A useful ratio in gauging global growth prospects versus global fear is the copper-to-gold price ratio. The ratio has become increasingly relevant over the past fifteen years as China, now the dominant swing factor in the global growth equation, has emerged as a massive copper consumer. At the end o...

October 21, 2017
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Embracing Market Volatility – Can You Stomach 20% Annual Market Volatility? You should…

As we reflect on the 30th anniversary of the 1987 crash in the context of an 8-year bull market for stocks, it is worth highlighting that investing based on traditional measures of volatility, like the CBOE VIX index, are not always a good indicator of future market returns. There has been a lot of ...

October 19, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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“Finding The Optimal Balance – Lessons From a NYC Commuter”

Navigating these markets is much like my 30-minute bike commute to work every day through the streets of Manhattan (see video above in 6 min version). Every twist and turn is a split-second reassessment of risk versus reward. Your mind is constantly evaluating speed, risk, braking, volatility, potho...

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Makes Donation to Aid Neediest Victims of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

The devastation in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of hurricane Maria has touched all of us here at C.J. Lawrence. C.J. Lawrence has a 25-year history advising private clients and institutions on the island of Puerto Rico. In these times of need, C.J. Lawrence stands with the people of Puerto Rico ...

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence Makes Donation to Aid Neediest Victims of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

October 19, 2017
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C.J. Lawrence Makes Donation to Aid Neediest Victims of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

October 19, 2017
News & Media
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C.J. Lawrence UIT Products Surpass $1 Billion in Sales at Advisors Asset Management

Advisors Asset Management (AAM) announced on September 7th that it exceeded $1 billion in sales in unit investment trusts (UITs) where C.J. Lawrence (CJL) serves as the portfolio consultant. CJL is a New York-based investment management firm providing customized portfolios to individuals, families a...

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence UIT Products Surpass $1 Billion in Sales at Advisors Asset Management

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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C.J. Lawrence UIT Products Surpass $1 Billion in Sales at Advisors Asset Management

October 16, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2018 Earnings Estimates May Be Too Low

Third quarter earnings season kicked off last week with good reports from most of the big banks. JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America all topped analysts’ top and bottom line forecasts. Despite the “beats”, the stocks of those companies experienced muted responses to their reports. ...

October 9, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “Financials Add Fuel”

Financial stocks re-exerted leadership last week. After a strong 1Q17, the sector had faded into the middle of the performance pack among the broader S&P sectors. The S&P Financials Index is now up 13.1% for the year, ranking it 6 out of the 11 sectors. As we have noted in previous Weekly Comments, ...

October 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “The Great Unwind Begins”

With the arrival of October comes the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to unwind its’ massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Fed’s chair, Janet Yellen, has expressed her desire to keep the process running quietly in the background. The markets are hoping it plays out that way. Neve...

September 27, 2017
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “The Prospect for Corporate Tax Reform May Be Keeping Bears in Their Dens”

Senator John McCain’s indication that he would not support the Graham-Cassidy Health Care Bill threw more sand into Washington D.C.’s gears last week. Week-end jockeying may make the bill more palatable to hold-outs, but the machinations highlight the fact any new legislation faces considerable ...

September 25, 2017
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “Inflation & the Rule of 20” – September 18, 2017

Higher gas prices and housing costs helped push last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading to 0.4%, versus the 0.3% most economists were expecting. Interestingly, it was the medical cost category that restrained the index, growing at the slowest pace since 1965, according to the U.S. Bureau...

January 20, 2017
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OPEC Discord and the Oil Shale Breakout Created the Surplus: Now… What is Turning It Around?

Oil stocks have sharply underperformed the general market from mid-2014 to early 2016. On balance, during the last decade, the oil industry has not been an attractive place to add new investment funds. I believe this will significantly change in the course of 2017. Oil and gas companies today consti...

December 14, 2016
News & Media
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Goldman Sachs: MVP of a Dow 20000

А Dow 20000 milestone would have Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to thank. The stock of the Wall Street bank is the top-performing component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since the presidential election, accounting for about а quarter of the average's rise. Shares of the Wall Street firm are up 3...

November 14, 2016
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Election Tea Leaves

A global grass roots political upheaval is spreading. Brazil has ousted its president and Venezuela is an inch away. Brexit was a core “no more” vote against immigration. The U.S. was a surprise double header with Republicans taking both the White House and the Congress. France seems certain to ...

July 12, 2016
News & Media
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The Stock Market’s New High: A Record About Nothing

Wall Street’s getting giddy again, with the S&P 500 yesterday, and the Dow today, back in record territory. In the long view, it’s not much to get excited about, really: the S&P 500 is up less than 20 points since its May 2015 high. Small matters like that aren’t likely to derail today’s �...

February 16, 2016
News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Recognized as Top Guns Manager by Informa Investment Solutions

C.J. Lawrence today announced that it has been recognized with Top Guns status by Informa Investment Solutions’ PSN manager database in 4Q 2015. CJL Balanced was named a Top Gun across all six star categories, and CJL Bulldog Equity was named a Top Gun in the 1-Star Category. Utilizing a propr...

February 16, 2016
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C.J. Lawrence Recognized as Top Guns Manager by Informa Investment Solutions

February 4, 2016
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The Road from Nadir to Zenith

Oil industry observers around the world have been taken aback by the speed, ferocity, and steadiness of the downtrend in global crude oil prices over the past twenty months. They went from roughly $110 per bbl in June of 2014 to $33 per bbl at the end of January, 2016. This is a 70% fall if we avera...

October 13, 2015
News & Media
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Why There’s No Better Time to Buy Commodities

Commodities haven’t just had a rough year. It’s been more like a rough half-decade, in which prices of raw materials and foodstuffs were halved. Once a mainstay ingredient in the investing soup, this asset class is now being shunned, and some people are making ever more bearish price forecasts. ...

September 10, 2015
News & Media
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C.J. Lawrence Re-established as Independent Investment Management Firm

NEW YORK (Sept. 10, 2015) C.J. Lawrence, a legendary Wall Street firm dating back to 1864 and acquired by Morgan Grenfell Group in 1986, which in turn was acquired by Deutsche Bank A.G., has been re-established as a registered investment advisor by a management team long affiliated with the firm. ...

March 24, 2015
News & Media
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AAM Partners with Cyrus J. Lawrence

MONUMENT, COLO.—March 24, 2015—Advisors Asset Management (AAM) has signed an agreement with Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC (CJL), which constitutes the former investment management division of International Strategy & Investment Inc. (ISI). Cyrus J. Lawrence was re-launched in March 2015, following ISI G...

March 24, 2015
News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp
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