Terry Gardner Archives - Page 2 of 2 - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 24, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Interest Rate Cuts May Stave Off Reckoning for Highly Leveraged Companies

One metric we like to watch to help gauge the health of S&P 500 companies is the Interest Coverage Ratio. The ratio measures how easily a company can pay its debt. In aggregate, the Index’s ratio provides insight into the health of corporate balance sheets and supporting cash flow....

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, shrugged off a disappointing payroll report and ongoing concerns about U.S. – China trade relations, to post an impressive 4.4% gain last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned to playing a supporting role in the market’s adv...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

Equity markets tend to thrive during periods of economic stability and visibility and struggle during times of economic and political uncertainty. Last week, as investors were grappling with the challenges associated with China-U.S. trade tensions, the Mexico tariff grenade was tossed into the ten...

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

U.S. – China trade talks, or the lack thereof, continue to dominate business news headlines and are creating an overhang on stock prices. Investors hope that the overhang will be lifted soon, but both the U.S. and China look to be digging in for a protracted battle. President Trump said last w...

May 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Editor’s Note: A month ago we wrote about growing unease among U.S. businesses operating in China. We are recirculating that note this afternoon as trade tensions between the U.S. and China reach a new level. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports by the U.S., retaliatory tariffs on ...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

May 6, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Labor Productivity Leadership Should Be Embraced

Last week’s U.S. Labor Department report stated that U.S non-farm labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019. That was welcome news for stock market bulls who had been viewing the lack of worker productivity as an obstacle to growth, or as a path to higher uni...

April 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Capital Spending Growth Looks Poised to Reaccelerate

When the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed in December 2017 the consensus expectation was that lower corporate income tax rates, lower tax rates on repatriated overseas capital, and increased incentives for near-term capital investment would spur a durable capital spending cycle in the U.S. Indeed, capi...

April 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – India’s Election May Have Broad Implications for the Global Economy

As U.S. investors evaluate the policy positions of the growing field of candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and attempt to gauge the impact of the recently released Mueller report, the world’s largest election has commenced in India. The first phase of the seven-phase Indian parli...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

Last week’s jobs report seemed to strike the right tone with the stock market. The U.S. Labor Department calculated that March nonfarm payrolls advanced by 196,000 versus an estimate of 175,000, and that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Prior to its release the report was...

April 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Market Gets a Lyft, but Equities Can’t Find Long Term Love

If you returned from a remote, deserted island (without wifi!) and were told that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield had declined another 32 basis points in 1Q19, on continued fears of slowing global economic growth, it is not likely that you would have guessed that stocks staged an impressive ral...

March 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Free Cash Flow Is King

Last week’s U.S. economic data releases sent mixed signals. The U.S. industrial economy continues to slow, as indicated by weaker-than-expected Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization readings. But the consumer economy remains robust, bolstered by low unemployment and persistent consume...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

The better-than-expected trade data out of China last week was downplayed by most economists who suggested that the data may have been distorted by the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism has been rising, particularly in the Chinese equity markets, that a U.S.-China trade d...

February 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Market and Stock Analysts in Sync on Slower Growth

Last week’s announcement from the European Commission that it had lowered its 2019 economic growth forecast for the Eurozone from 1.9% to 1.3% broke a string of positive events and announcements that had helped lift stock prices from their December lows. Better-than-feared 4Q18 earnings results ...

February 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Many Will Survive but Only Few Will Thrive in a Healthy U.S. Consumer Economy

Given the sharp decline in equities during the month of December, and the negative headlines generated by the U.S. federal government shut-down, it should not have come as a surprise that the January Consumer Confidence Index reading dropped below December’s level. But the magnitude of the decli...

January 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Revenue Growers Stand Out

This coming week will be an important one for earnings watchers. 126 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report 4Q18 results, including bellwethers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. So far, fourth quarter reports are coming in close to plan. Of the 110 companies that have repor...

January 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Outperformance May Be Found in Unlikely Places

The stock market is off to a good start in 2019. The rally began the day after Christmas and has continued through the first few weeks of January. Investors expecting a Santa Claus rally in December had been sorely disappointed by the lump of coal they received instead. But Santa l...

January 14, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Individual Investors Sell Stock and Bond Funds, While Institutional Investors Shun Stocks

Outflows from domestic equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) accelerated into year-end 2018. According to data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), domestic equity funds experienced outflows of $105.5 billion in 2018, $30 billion of which flowed out in the fourth quarter. ...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

On December 19, 2018 The Federal Reserve raised the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. During this holiday week, we are proud to repost this popular C.J. Lawrence Weekly, originally published on November 22, 2018 for additional perspective. Have a wonderful hol...

December 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability. The current environment is providing neither. After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019. But the negative impact of...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

The stock market’s recent swings have been dramatic. On several occasions the S&P 500 has completed a round-trip move of more than 3% in a single session. Last week the Index reached a high of 2,800 but finished the week at 2,623, down 6.3% from the intra-week high and down 4.6% for the week. ...

November 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Checking the Pulse of the Freight Economy

The shift in economic and market sentiment during the past few weeks has been palpable. The once synchronized global growth chorus has subsided and has been replaced with a negative refrain of global growth deceleration. Recent lackluster economic data releases from China and Europe have contributed...

November 22, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Recognizes Leadership Team for Significant Charitable Contributions

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE C.J. Lawrence Recognizes Leadership Team for Significant Charitable Contributions Managing partners Bernhard Koepp, Terry Gardner are acknowledged for their dedicated advocacy of The Opera Foundation, Marine Toys for Tots Foundation and Becker/Gambles Music Fund, respectively. ...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

This week, millions of consumers will finish their shopping for the time-honored American tradition, the Thanksgiving Dinner. If Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, handles those duties for his family, he’ll find some interesting data to consider, adding to ...

November 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

November 12, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence’s Terry Gardner Quoted in Yahoo Finance – November 12, 2018

3 Signs Bears Are Poised to Devour the Stock Market Bulls by Brian Sozzi, Editor-at-Large, Yahoo Finance Article Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-signs-bears-poised-devour-stock-market-bulls-193501594.html One really shouldn’t be shocked by Monday’s bruising market sell-off, provided the...

November 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 On Track for “Quiet” Year Despite Spike in VIX

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOE) developed and launched the Market Volatility Index (VIX) in 1993, based on the Sigma Index and methodology created by Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai in 1986. Today it is a commonly referred to as the “fear gauge” because of the perception that higher volati...

October 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Innovation on Sale

The recent market sell-off has investors questioning their allocation strategies and the underpinnings of the bull market in stocks. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is now down 0.56%, after being up 11.2% at its September peak. The Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary sectors were j...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

The S&P 500 Index hit a new record high on January 20th of this year. Then, within nine trading days of the new high, it lost over 10% of its value. Sparking the sell-off was the release of some “hot” economic data, which was expected to usher in higher inflation and higher interest rates...

October 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Don’t Fear the Rate Cycle

Last week’s dramatic stock market headlines sounded much worse than the result. The S&P 500 Index finished down 0.9% for the week, and, as of Friday, was up 7.9% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ Composite did not fare as well trading off 3.2% for the week but was outperforming most oth...

October 1, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China’s Pain be India’s Gain?

By many accounts, the pace of growth of the Chinese economy has been slowing over the past two quarters and the Chinese government is considering new sources of stimulus to help the country sustain its 6.5% target rate of GDP growth. The imposition of import tariffs on many Chinese goods destined fo...

September 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The New S&P Sector Construction is Coming, and It Matters

Back in March we highlighted an announcement by S&P Global, Inc. that stated it was realigning three of its eleven S&P sectors, on Sept 28, to more accurately reflect the constituents’ lines of business. The realignment will result in changes to the make-up of the Technology and Consumer...

January 12, 2018
Blog , News & Media

Upcoming Webinar – C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategy & Outlook 2018

On Tuesday, January 23 at 12:00 PM EST, C.J. Lawrence will host a live 60-minute webinar with C.J. Lawrence’s senior partners and portfolio management team – Bernhard Koepp, Terry Gardner, Jr., – to discuss the latest market outlook and investment thesis for 2018. This webinar will set the...

Terry Gardner

Login Area

Register New Account