Insights - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

January 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Inflation Counter‐Forces in the New Economy

In the previous millennium, strategists and economists would sometimes gauge inflationary pressures by measuring and comparing the prices of New York City taxi medallions versus the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. The price for a NYSE seats, which allowed the limited number of holder...

January 17, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Death of “New Normal” – Preparing for Normal

The term, New Normal became the new paradigm in business and economics to describe the financial environment in the wake of the 2008 crisis and the global recession that followed. Mohammed El-Erian, the then head of PIMCO, first used the term in 2010 in a lecture titled “Navigating the New Nor...

January 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Want Blockchain Exposure? Buy a Basket “OF MAGIC”

Until last week, Kodak was an imaging company struggling to manage the transition from film and hardware to digital and software. The 130-year-old company, which emerged from bankruptcy in 2012, had lost 80+% of its market value since re-emerging as a public company. But on Tuesday, Kodak announced ...

January 12, 2018
Blog , News & Media

Upcoming Webinar – C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategy & Outlook 2018

On Tuesday, January 23 at 12:00 PM EST, C.J. Lawrence will host a live 60-minute webinar with C.J. Lawrence’s senior partners and portfolio management team – Bernhard Koepp, Terry Gardner, Jr., – to discuss the latest market outlook and investment thesis for 2018. This webinar will set the...

January 8, 2018
News & Media

Why Fund-Flow Stats Aren’t the Indicator They Used to Be

C.J. Lawrence’s Portfolio Strategist and Investment Manager Terry Gardner on how fund-flow data is still used. Ву Simon Constable | January 7, 2018 10:03 p.m. ET Whether the traditional fund-flow data will be of any use in calling a market top this time is an open question. РНОТО: ISTOCKPHO...

January 8, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – CJL Market Monitor Continues to Favor Stocks

As investment managers, we sleep with one eye open and the other on our Market Monitor. The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the attractiveness of the stock market. It calibrates the relative appeal of stocks versus fixed income and tests the internal technical ...

January 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2017 Scoreboard Highlights Consistent Technology Leadership

When we wrote the year-end market summary last year, we noted the high level of sector rotation that took place on a quarterly basis throughout 2016. In 2017, leadership was instead remarkably consistent. Of the major S&P 500 sectors, Technology led all others in three out of four quarters and f...

December 28, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“US GDP Moves Above Potential” – Implications for Markets

Using Reinhart and Rogoff’s work, suggesting that it normally takes a decade for an economy to reach potential output growth following a financial crisis, our former CJL colleague, Ed Hyman, at Evercore ISI points out that the US economy has finally broken out of its decade of sub-par growth (see ...

December 20, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“A Perfect Year” – Outlook for 2018

As of this writing, 2017 is the first perfect year where the S&P500 had a positive return every month for the entire year. 2017 also coincides with the US Output Gap swinging back to the long-term trend line which we haven’t seen for a decade meaning that the economy is back on track. Economie...

December 18, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Time to Rotate to Value Stocks?…Not So Fast

The likely passage of the U.S. tax reform bill, a bump up in the U.S. Fed Funds target rate, and better than expected economic data have all contributed to a reevaluation of equity investor sector and style weightings. As discussed in last week’s note, we got a glimpse of rapid sector rotation two...

December 11, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Cash Can be King Even When You’re Bullish

Whether it’s the machines at work, or faster fingered traders, when the market shifts, it happens fast. The week after Thanksgiving provides a good example of how quickly sentiment can change, and how dramatically and demonstrably the market reacts to those shifts. For months, pundits have been ca...

December 7, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Great News for New York’s Special Needs Families – 529 ABLE Program Goes Live

With surprisingly little fanfare, New York State recently launched its own state-sponsored 529 ABLE program. This is terrific news for New York State resident special needs families. The legislation, signed into law in December of 2015, allowed for the creation of a savings and investment program, ...

December 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Improving Earnings Growth Forecasts Suggest the Bull May be Sharpening His Horns

Friday’s stock market roller coaster ride ended on a down note, but finished well off the lows of the day. Speculation about what former National Security Director, Michael Flynn, might say to the U.S. Special Prosecutor investigating his pre-inauguration activities, reversed the equity market’s...

November 27, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sector Watch: Consumer Staples’ Premium Valuation at Risk

The Consumer Staples sector has historically been viewed as a safe port in a market storm and a key component sector to diversified portfolios. The thesis has held that the consistency of sales and relatively high dividend yields of sector constituents are the defensive characteristics sought by inv...

November 20, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Talking Turkey – Deflation at Dinner

The recently released Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) diverged in their October readings. The PPI rose to an annual rate of 2.8%, the highest annual rate since February of 2012. The CPI, on the other hand, barely rose for the month, and the annual rate bumped down to 2.0% f...

November 14, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – China’s and India’s Economic Growth Prospects are Good for Equity Prices

As the US House of Representatives and Senate work through the machinations of domestic tax reform, President Trump has been visiting the globe’s fastest growing region, discussing trade relations, and meeting with regional heads of state. His visit to China looks to have delivered few tangible ne...

November 7, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Economy is Supportive of Accelerating S&P 500 Top-Line Growth

It was not surprising that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged last week, but the pressure seems to be mounting for a December move. The third quarter GDP result of 3.0% was followed, last week, by an impressive ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reading of 60.1...

October 31, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

American Renaissance in Manufacturing: Fact or Fiction?

Those of you who still read the daily newspapers in print, will have noticed a small article buried away in the back pages of the Wall Street Journal on October 3rd which did not get enough attention in my opinion. The title was “Manufacturing Hits a 13-Year High”. This fact did not escape our g...

October 30, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – REIT Underperformance Likely to Persist

“Bond proxy” equities struggled last week as the benchmark U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield climbed to 2.42% (from 2.06% in early September) reinforcing fears among bond proxy holders that rising interest rates will compete more competently for income seekers. For the week, the Telecom, Real Est...

October 25, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Applying The Long Wave in the Age of Disruptors – What Does This Mean for Stock Picking?

In the early 1920s, Russian Economist Nikolai Kondratiev developed the concept of the long wave when applying technological change to traditional economic cycles. He observed that these periods of long waves can range from forty to sixty years and consist of alternating intervals between high sector...

October 23, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Goldilocks’ Porridge Made With Copper and Gold

A useful ratio in gauging global growth prospects versus global fear is the copper-to-gold price ratio. The ratio has become increasingly relevant over the past fifteen years as China, now the dominant swing factor in the global growth equation, has emerged as a massive copper consumer. At the end o...

October 21, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Embracing Market Volatility – Can You Stomach 20% Annual Market Volatility? You should…

As we reflect on the 30th anniversary of the 1987 crash in the context of an 8-year bull market for stocks, it is worth highlighting that investing based on traditional measures of volatility, like the CBOE VIX index, are not always a good indicator of future market returns. There has been a lot of ...

October 19, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Finding The Optimal Balance – Lessons From a NYC Commuter”

Navigating these markets is much like my 30-minute bike commute to work every day through the streets of Manhattan (see video above in 6 min version). Every twist and turn is a split-second reassessment of risk versus reward. Your mind is constantly evaluating speed, risk, braking, volatility, potho...

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Makes Donation to Aid Neediest Victims of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

The devastation in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of hurricane Maria has touched all of us here at C.J. Lawrence. C.J. Lawrence has a 25-year history advising private clients and institutions on the island of Puerto Rico. In these times of need, C.J. Lawrence stands with the people of Puerto Rico ...

October 19, 2017
News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence UIT Products Surpass $1 Billion in Sales at Advisors Asset Management

Advisors Asset Management (AAM) announced on September 7th that it exceeded $1 billion in sales in unit investment trusts (UITs) where C.J. Lawrence (CJL) serves as the portfolio consultant. CJL is a New York-based investment management firm providing customized portfolios to individuals, families ...

October 16, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2018 Earnings Estimates May Be Too Low

Third quarter earnings season kicked off last week with good reports from most of the big banks. JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, and Bank of America all topped analysts’ top and bottom line forecasts. Despite the “beats”, the stocks of those companies experienced muted responses to their reports. ...

October 9, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “Financials Add Fuel”

Financial stocks re-exerted leadership last week. After a strong 1Q17, the sector had faded into the middle of the performance pack among the broader S&P sectors. The S&P Financials Index is now up 13.1% for the year, ranking it 6 out of the 11 sectors. As we have noted in previous Weekly Co...

October 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “The Great Unwind Begins”

With the arrival of October comes the beginning of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to unwind its’ massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet. The Fed’s chair, Janet Yellen, has expressed her desire to keep the process running quietly in the background. The markets are hoping it plays out that way. Neve...

September 27, 2017
Blog

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “The Prospect for Corporate Tax Reform May Be Keeping Bears in Their Dens”

The Prospect for Corporate Tax Reform May Be Keeping Bears in Their Dens Senator John McCain’s indication that he would not support the Graham-Cassidy Health Care Bill threw more sand into Washington D.C.’s gears last week. Week-end jockeying may make the bill more palatable to hold-outs, but th...

September 25, 2017
Blog

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – “Inflation & the Rule of 20” – September 18, 2017

Higher gas prices and housing costs helped push last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading to 0.4%, versus the 0.3% most economists were expecting. Interestingly, it was the medical cost category that restrained the index, growing at the slowest pace since 1965, according to the U.S. Bureau...

January 20, 2017
Blog

OPEC Discord and the Oil Shale Breakout Created the Surplus: Now… What is Turning It Around?

In this special report we are delighted to provide you with thoughts on the global energy markets from legendary energy analyst, and former C.J. Lawrence Inc. Vice Chairman, Charley Maxwell....

December 14, 2016
News & Media

Goldman Sachs: MVP of a Dow 20000

Terry Gardner advises people to hold off investing in banks, despite the Wall Street bank’s stock rocketing since the election. Ву John Carney | Dec. 14, 2016 5:30 a.m. ЕТ Goldman shares are up 31% since Election Day, rising to within striking distance of their all-time closing high of $247....

November 14, 2016
Blog

Election Tea Leaves

A global grass roots political upheaval is spreading. Brazil has ousted its president and Venezuela is an inch away. Brexit was a core “no more” vote against immigration. The U.S. was a surprise double header with Republicans taking both the White House and the Congress. France seems certain to ...

July 12, 2016
News & Media

The Stock Market’s New High: A Record About Nothing

On the Wall Street Journal’s Moneybeat, Terry Gardner warns Wall Street getting excited about the S&P 500, pointing out the imbalance of the current US stock market. By Paul Vigna / Jul 12, 2016 10:43 am ET Wall Street’s getting giddy again, with the S&P 500 yesterday, and the Dow to...

February 16, 2016
News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Recognized as Top Guns Manager by Informa Investment Solutions

C.J. Lawrence today announced that it has been recognized with Top Guns status by Informa Investment Solutions’ PSN manager database in 4Q 2015. CJL Balanced was named a Top Gun across all six star categories, and CJL Bulldog Equity was named a Top Gun in the 1-Star Category. Utilizing a propr...

February 4, 2016
Blog

The Road from Nadir to Zenith

In this special report we are delighted to provide you with thoughts on the global energy markets from legendary energy analyst, and former C.J. Lawrence Inc. Vice Chairman, Charley Maxwell....

October 13, 2015
News & Media

Why There’s No Better Time to Buy Commodities

Terry Gardner expresses skepticism on commodity investing for individual investors in US News article. By Simon Constable Oct. 13, 2015 | 9:48 a.m. EDT+ More Commodities haven’t just had a rough year. It’s been more like a rough half-decade, in which prices of raw materials and foodstuf...

September 10, 2015
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Re-established as Independent Investment Management Firm

Experienced Executive Team Leads Rebirth NEW YORK (Sept. 10, 2015) C.J. Lawrence, a legendary Wall Street firm dating back to 1864 and acquired by Morgan Grenfell Group in 1986, which in turn was acquired by Deutsche Bank A.G., has been re-established as a registered investment advisor by a manageme...

March 24, 2015
News & Media

AAM Partners with Cyrus J. Lawrence

Firm will Continue to Receive High-Quality Consultancy Services for American Renaissance & European Select Portfolio UITs MONUMENT, COLO.—March 24, 2015—Advisors Asset Management (AAM) has signed an agreement with Cyrus J. Lawrence LLC (CJL), which constitutes the former investment managem...

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