GDP Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

May 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Markets grind lower; travel expenses up 18.6% in April

This post was originally written on May 14, 2022, 4:02 PM EST. Despite a nice relief rally going into the weekend, the market continues to grind lower, down 2.4% for the week for the broader S&P500, now down 16% for the year. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 24% for the year (up 29% in 2021). [&hel...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

This post was originally written on March 18, 2022, 6:59 PM EST. Markets ended the week on a friendlier note, up 6.2% for the week, back to the 200-day moving average for the broader market (S&P500) while the Nasdaq has a long way to go to repair some of the technical damage it suffered since [&...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period. Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

This post was originally written on March 4, 2022, 6:20 PM EST. Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probabiltiy scenario going into 2022. (We rem...

February 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This post was originally written on February 28, 2022, 6:01 PM EST. This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Russian banks’ ability to use the European payments system (SWIFT) were severely curtailed. Russian assets a...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Morning, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Wednesday, November 25th, day before Thanksgi...

November 11, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Post Election Market Commentary & Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – 11/10/2020 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses his economic outlook post election, the game-changing covid-19 vaccine and its implications for GDP growth in 2021, potential black swan events, worries about inflation and the US Dollar, as well as the debate on growth versus value inves...

September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG

Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon, every...

August 19, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses discusses 6 points: 1) Market nearing a new high; positive fundamentals remain with the crowded trade. 2) Economy- The parade of eye-popping Q2-GDP data is out but GDP outlook looks positive; Inflation – “Fed will tolerate higher infl...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Phase I of the U.S. – China trade deal was announced on Friday to much media, but little stock market, fanfare. The adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may have been in play. In fact, the S&P 500 Index price is up 5.4% in just the past three months, even as tariff deadlines [&helli...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

Equity investors demonstrated considerable buying restraint over the past several weeks as interest rates flirted with historic lows. In early September, the U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond yield slipped below 1.5%, where it had not been since 2016 and 2012 before that. Historically, as rat...

September 16, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Rotation to Value Looks Unsustainable

The S&P 500 broke back above 3,000 last week and is zeroing in on its prior peak of 3,026 set back in July. All major S&P sectors are generating positive returns on a year-to-date basis. Technology is still leading the performance pack for the year, followed closely by the bond-proxy REI...

September 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Sales Growers in Communications Services and Healthcare Sectors Have the Right Mix

With 2Q19 earnings season mostly in the rear-view mirror, investors and analysts are recalibrating their models to incorporate the recently reported results and refreshed outlook. Despite a slight year-over-year decline in quarterly earnings, S&P 500 earnings per share came in slightly better-...

August 19, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Global Growth Engine

The equity markets breathed a sigh of relief on Friday. Most of the economic data releases were positive, treasury bond yields rose, and stocks rallied. The S&P 500 lost ground for the week but improved 1.44% on Friday alone, with economically sensitive sectors like Industrials, Technology a...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

May 9, 2019
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Market’s Obsession with Tariffs by Bernhard Koepp

At C.J. Lawrence we are spending less time in our investment process trying to second guess the outcome of the trade war between the US and China but more on finding interesting investment opportunities in what we call “The Digital Divide”. We are focused on larger companies, which we call Bulld...

May 6, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Labor Productivity Leadership Should Be Embraced

Last week’s U.S. Labor Department report stated that U.S non-farm labor productivity rose at a 3.6% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2019. That was welcome news for stock market bulls who had been viewing the lack of worker productivity as an obstacle to growth, or as a path to higher uni...

April 22, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – India’s Election May Have Broad Implications for the Global Economy

As U.S. investors evaluate the policy positions of the growing field of candidates for the 2020 U.S. presidential election and attempt to gauge the impact of the recently released Mueller report, the world’s largest election has commenced in India. The first phase of the seven-phase Indian parli...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

February 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Many Will Survive but Only Few Will Thrive in a Healthy U.S. Consumer Economy

Given the sharp decline in equities during the month of December, and the negative headlines generated by the U.S. federal government shut-down, it should not have come as a surprise that the January Consumer Confidence Index reading dropped below December’s level. But the magnitude of the decli...

January 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Revenue Growers Stand Out

This coming week will be an important one for earnings watchers. 126 of the 500 companies in the S&P 500 Index will report 4Q18 results, including bellwethers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple. So far, fourth quarter reports are coming in close to plan. Of the 110 companies that have repor...

June 11, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Support for Consumer Discretionary Stocks…U.S. Household Net Worth Exceeds $100 Trillion for First Time

It’s not surprising that U.S. Consumer Confidence is high. U.S. household net worth eclipsed $100 trillion for the first time in 1Q18, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Flow of Funds report. The two categories that have the greatest impact on household balance sheets are p...

April 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Rising Rates Provide Headwind, not Barrier, for Stocks

Last week’s market action was noteworthy for its flowing cross-currents. Economic and corporate earnings reports were particularly strong, but for bulls, the equity market’s reaction was disappointing. The S&P 500 Index finished the week close to flat, versus the prior week’s close. Ma...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

It’s difficult to identify a singular catalyst for the market’s recent volatility. Whether it’s politics, trade, or corporate stumbles, the equity markets’ reaction to events and news has been swift and pronounced. The large intraday swings in stock prices suggest that traders are shooti...

January 17, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Death of “New Normal” – Preparing for Normal

The term, New Normal became the new paradigm in business and economics to describe the financial environment in the wake of the 2008 crisis and the global recession that followed. Mohammed El-Erian, the then head of PIMCO, first used the term in 2010 in a lecture titled “Navigating the New Nor...

December 28, 2017
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“US GDP Moves Above Potential” – Implications for Markets

Using Reinhart and Rogoff’s work, suggesting that it normally takes a decade for an economy to reach potential output growth following a financial crisis, our former CJL colleague, Ed Hyman, at Evercore ISI points out that the US economy has finally broken out of its decade of sub-par growth (see ...

December 4, 2017
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Improving Earnings Growth Forecasts Suggest the Bull May be Sharpening His Horns

Friday’s stock market roller coaster ride ended on a down note, but finished well off the lows of the day. Speculation about what former National Security Director, Michael Flynn, might say to the U.S. Special Prosecutor investigating his pre-inauguration activities, reversed the equity market’s...

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