U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

This post was originally written on March 18, 2022, 6:59 PM EST. Markets ended the week on a friendlier note, up 6.2% for the week, back to the 200-day moving average for the broader market (S&P500) while the Nasdaq has a long way to go to repair some of the technical damage it suffered since [&...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period. Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

Last week’s economic data releases were market moving events. Traders’ algorithms were spring loaded and poised to react to any signal suggesting the economy was moving in one direction or the other. On Wednesday, before the open, the Department of Labor released its Initial Jobless Claims r...

September 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The CJL Rule of 20 Pegs the Stock Market Valuation at Fair Value

Equity investors demonstrated considerable buying restraint over the past several weeks as interest rates flirted with historic lows. In early September, the U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond yield slipped below 1.5%, where it had not been since 2016 and 2012 before that. Historically, as rat...

September 16, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Rotation to Value Looks Unsustainable

The S&P 500 broke back above 3,000 last week and is zeroing in on its prior peak of 3,026 set back in July. All major S&P sectors are generating positive returns on a year-to-date basis. Technology is still leading the performance pack for the year, followed closely by the bond-proxy REI...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, shrugged off a disappointing payroll report and ongoing concerns about U.S. – China trade relations, to post an impressive 4.4% gain last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned to playing a supporting role in the market’s adv...

June 3, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Uncertainty May Challenge the Rule

Equity markets tend to thrive during periods of economic stability and visibility and struggle during times of economic and political uncertainty. Last week, as investors were grappling with the challenges associated with China-U.S. trade tensions, the Mexico tariff grenade was tossed into the ten...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

April 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Market Gets a Lyft, but Equities Can’t Find Long Term Love

If you returned from a remote, deserted island (without wifi!) and were told that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond yield had declined another 32 basis points in 1Q19, on continued fears of slowing global economic growth, it is not likely that you would have guessed that stocks staged an impressive ral...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

December 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

On December 19, 2018 The Federal Reserve raised the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. During this holiday week, we are proud to repost this popular C.J. Lawrence Weekly, originally published on November 22, 2018 for additional perspective. Have a wonderful hol...

December 17, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability. The current environment is providing neither. After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019. But the negative impact of...

November 19, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Does “Jay” Do the Thanksgiving Shopping?

This week, millions of consumers will finish their shopping for the time-honored American tradition, the Thanksgiving Dinner. If Jerome “Jay” Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, handles those duties for his family, he’ll find some interesting data to consider, adding to ...

November 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

October 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Is U.S. Economic Growth Reaching a Peak? The Bond Vigilantes May Tell Us.

In the early 1980’s our former Deutsche Bank colleague, Dr. Ed Yardeni, coined the phrase “Bond Vigilantes” to describe bond market reactions to loose fiscal policy. When the federal government threatened to ramp debt-fueled spending, the Bond Vigilantes would ride in, sell treasuries, and p...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

The S&P 500 Index hit a new record high on January 20th of this year. Then, within nine trading days of the new high, it lost over 10% of its value. Sparking the sell-off was the release of some “hot” economic data, which was expected to usher in higher inflation and higher interest rates...

October 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Don’t Fear the Rate Cycle

Last week’s dramatic stock market headlines sounded much worse than the result. The S&P 500 Index finished down 0.9% for the week, and, as of Friday, was up 7.9% on the year. The technology heavy NASDAQ Composite did not fare as well trading off 3.2% for the week but was outperforming most oth...

September 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Peak Margins? Not Yet.

The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at 3.07% on Friday, up 8 basis points for the week, continuing its recent uptrend. In fact, the 10-year yield is up 22 basis points in the last month. Despite strong demand for treasuries, which tends to suppress yields, the 10-year treasury yiel...

July 16, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Healthy Corporate Fundamentals and Stalled Bond Yields Keep the CJL Market Monitor in BUY Territory

The Market Monitor’s current reading is “BUY”, with a numerical score of +1, the lowest reading in BUY territory, on a scale of -6 to +6. As the Fed has lifted the Fed Funds target rate, the year-over-year interest rate rate-of-change models have weighed on the Monitor score. But despite ri...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading, released last week, came in close to 2.8% with the core reading at 2.2%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) reading echoed the improvement with a 3.1% annualized advance. The healthier pricing environment was confirmed in the Empire Manufacturing Index rea...

June 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Rising bond yields are often cited as an important risk to equity prices. Not only do higher interest rates render yields on fixed income instruments more competitive with stock earnings and dividend yields, but higher interest rates raise the equity risk premium that investors absorb when owning st...

April 30, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Rising Rates Provide Headwind, not Barrier, for Stocks

Last week’s market action was noteworthy for its flowing cross-currents. Economic and corporate earnings reports were particularly strong, but for bulls, the equity market’s reaction was disappointing. The S&P 500 Index finished the week close to flat, versus the prior week’s close. Ma...

February 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Volatility Returns (Chairman, James Moltz)

This week we are pleased to offer thoughts on the market from our Chairman, James Moltz. Jim launched the Weekly Market Comment at the original CJ. Lawrence back in the early 1970s and authored the piece for several decades. We are fortunate to have his perspectives and are grateful for his lead...

February 6, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Corrections vs Crashes – What are We Watching?

What are we watching this morning? Despite being fundamental investors, we need to turn to technicals today to understand if a correction is “normal” or something more ominous. We look to the structure of the sell off, ie is it orderly etc. We need to make sure price discovery is achieved and ma...

February 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Tug‐of‐War Between Lower Valuations and Faster Earnings Growth Still Skews Towards Growth

There are multiple reasons cited for last week’s equity market blow off. It’s difficult to know which event set the downdraft in motion but the rapid rise in interest rates, after several years of historically low rates, is a good place to start. The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Yield finishe...

January 22, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Inflation Counter‐Forces in the New Economy

In the previous millennium, strategists and economists would sometimes gauge inflationary pressures by measuring and comparing the prices of New York City taxi medallions versus the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. The price for a NYSE seats, which allowed the limited number of holder...

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