Consumer Discretionary

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

according to recent confidence and comfort index readings, the U.S. consumer is feeling strong and may be up to the task of playing the role of Atlas, who according to Greek mythology, carried the weight of the world on his shoulders. ...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

Given China’s voracious appetite for dry commodities, the BDI is considered a good leading indicator of Chinese economic output. The signal it is currently sending is that Chinese economic growth may be slower than consensus forecasts. The BDI reached a 5-year high in July of 2018 but is now dow...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

Despite growing consensus expectations of both slowing international trade and global growth, company analysts have not dramatically ratcheted back their 2019 sales and earnings growth forecasts and are therefore unlikely to raise them if a deal is consummated. ...

September 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Valuations and Earnings Growth Play Tug-of-War in Earnings-Driven Markets

rom the beginning of 2013 to the end of 2017 the S&P 500 Index price rose 87%. During that period S&P 500 earnings per share rose 25% while the Index’s price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple expanded by 62%. That mix is now reversing. The P/E multiple on the S&P 500, using next-twelve-months earnings...

August 13, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – S&P 500 Companies Beat High 2Q18 Expectations

Second quarter earnings growth is now on track for the highest level achieved since the third quarter of 2010. According to data from FactSet, over 79% of reporting companies delivered positive earnings surprises in 2Q18, which is the highest positive surprise result since they began tracking the d...

June 18, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

Consecutive multi-year revenue growth, above 4.0% annually, has historically been a strong underpinning for stock prices. Over the past 25 years, there have been three periods when the S&P 500 produced 4.0%+ revenue growth for three or more consecutive years. During those periods the average annua...

May 29, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Growth Stocks Reaccelerate

Since January of 2009, the S&P 500 Growth Index has delivered a 326% total return, while the S&P 500 Value Index returned 212% during the same period. Definitions of what constitutes value stocks and growth stocks differ, but most agree that to qualify as a value stock a company’s shares should ...

April 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Bears are Back. Contrarians Take Note.

The recent increase in volatility, and concurrent swift and dramatic market corrections, have altered market psychology and have increased investor sensitivity to headlines and changes in momentum. ...

March 12, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – New S&P Sector Construct Could Create Volatility this Summer

Followers of the CJL Weekly Market Comment are familiar with our practice of looking below the broader market indices to compare the fundamentals, price performance, and valuations of the 11 different S&P Sectors, 24 Industry Groups and, 157 Sub-Industries. This style of analysis dates back to the o...

January 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2017 Scoreboard Highlights Consistent Technology Leadership

When we wrote the year-end market summary last year, we noted the high level of sector rotation that took place on a quarterly basis throughout 2016. In 2017, leadership was instead remarkably consistent. Of the major S&P 500 sectors, Technology led all others in three out of four quarters and finis...

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