Insights - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

This post was originally written on March 4, 2022, 6:20 PM EST. Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probabiltiy scenario going into 2022. (We rem...

February 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This post was originally written on February 28, 2022, 6:01 PM EST. This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Russian banks’ ability to use the European payments system (SWIFT) were severely curtailed. Russian assets a...

February 25, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part II

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022. After indiscriminate selling at the open of the market this morning, the Nasdaq and then the broader market staged quite a dramatic reversal and closed up 1.5% for the S&P500 and the Tech heavy Nasdaq up 3.5%. What did we learn from today: M...

February 24, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part I

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022 at 9:39 AM EST. Today the market is pricing in the potential market disruption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the disputed territories. Despite the Biden Administration’s unprecedented transparency regarding US intelligence regar...

February 17, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence coming to you on Tuesday, February 15th, from the C.J. Lawrence Global Headquarters here in Midtown Manhattan. I want to give you some perspective on the current state of the stock market and the economy, cove...

December 16, 2021
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

December 16, 2021 06:00 AM Eastern Standard Time NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–C.J. Lawrence has been awarded a PSN Top Guns distinction by Informa Financial Intelligence’s PSN manager database, North America’s longest-running database of investment managers. C.J. Lawrence was honored wit...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Monday, November 22nd, with a brief video on this holiday week, covering three topics. First off, it’s that time of year where we take a look at the American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving di...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...

October 31, 2021
COVID-19 , Investments , News & Media

Comment le secteur de la gestion d’actifs réagit-il pour faire du Coronavirus une force ?

SOURCE: FORBES.COM Bernhard Koepp est un homme d’affaires germano-américain d’envergure internationale. Il a notamment travaillé à la Deutsche Bank à Londres et à New York ou il a co-géré les portefeuilles DB Top 50 US Fund et DB Bulldog. Au bureau du DPI de la division de la banque priv�...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

August 4, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

2Q Earnings Look Great, No Need to Try to Time the Market, Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 8.04.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by In this video, Terry Gardner analyzes S&P 500 2Q21 financial results, examines cross currents for the stock market and economy in 2022, discusses the balance between secular and...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the “market playbook”, and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning. Video Transcript Hi, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on Wednesday, February 24 with some market comme...

February 23, 2021
Blog , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

C.J. Lawrence® a leading investment advisor, has been awarded a PSN Top Guns distinction by Informa Financial Intelligence’s PSN manager database, North America’s longest-running database of investment managers. C.J. Lawrence was honored with a 4-Star Top Gun rating for its CJL Balanced –...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the themes that worked in 2020, examines the risk and reward ratio for the current stock market, and discusses positioning for 2021, all from the shores of the Great South Bay! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry G...

December 4, 2020
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Morning, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Wednesday, November 25th, day before Thanksgi...

November 11, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Post Election Market Commentary & Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – 11/10/2020 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses his economic outlook post election, the game-changing covid-19 vaccine and its implications for GDP growth in 2021, potential black swan events, worries about inflation and the US Dollar, as well as the debate on growth versus value inves...

September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG

Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon, every...

August 19, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses discusses 6 points: 1) Market nearing a new high; positive fundamentals remain with the crowded trade. 2) Economy- The parade of eye-popping Q2-GDP data is out but GDP outlook looks positive; Inflation – “Fed will tolerate higher infl...

July 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Update & Outlook – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence provides a mid-year update & outlook for 2020. C.J. Lawrence is a New York based investment adviser providing platinum level service and investment portfolio customization to individuals, families, and institutions. With a legacy that dates to ...

July 12, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

On Normalized Earnings Stocks are Not Overvalued – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist and Client Advisor, Terry Gardner, introduces the concept of “normalized earnings” and makes the case that, on that basis, the stock market is not over-valued. Gardner incorporates the CJL Rule of 20, which was developed by C.J. Lawrence Chairman...

May 20, 2020
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence’s Bulldog Portfolio Sponsored by Advisors Asset Management Surpasses $1 Billion in Sales

C.J. Lawrence® a leading investment advisor, in partnership with Advisors Asset Management (AAM), announced today that its Bulldog Portfolio exceeded $1 billion in cumulative sales. NEW YORK, N.Y. (PRWEB) MAY 20, 2020 – VIEW THE OFFICIAL RELEASE C.J. Lawrence serves as the portfolio consulta...

May 15, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Looking Around Corners & the “Tilted-V” – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, discusses how the stock market is “looking around corners” and will likely follow a “tilted V” shaped recovery. Terry also takes a look at the sequential recovery in S&P 500 earnings per share and elaborates on why it may ...

May 3, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Leadership Still Lacking; Sustainable Top-Line Growth is Key – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence reviews this cycle’s three market phases, highlights “Whatever it Takes,” laments the lack of leadership from financial stocks, and shares his analysis of consistent sales growers. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon everyone. It...

April 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

A Day in the Life of Social Distancing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, describes a typical day in the life of social distancing to illustrate what companies are open for business during the economic shutdown and will emerge stronger after the crisis. Companies mentioned during this video broadcast include: Microsoft,...

April 28, 2020
Blog , News & Media

N.Y. Investment Management Firm Launches COVID-19 Campaign to Support Long Islanders

C.J. Lawrence Partners with Island Harvest and Others to Help Assist Populations in Need LONG ISLAND, N.Y. (PRWEB) APRIL 28, 2020 As New Yorkers hunker down in a State of Emergency, many wonder what else they can be doing to help during the Global Pandemic brought on by COVID-19. To respond to the ...

April 17, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Markets Recover but Leadership from Financials is Missing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, In this video, Terry Gardner, Portfolio Strategist at C.J. Lawrence, reviews the stock market’s three peaks cycle in dealing with the coronavirus, examines recent economic and corporate data, and addresses the market’s recent leadership. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hi, good af...

April 6, 2020
Blog , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi – April 6, 2020

Futures jump on hopes coronavirus spread may be stabilizing https://finance.yahoo.com/video/futures-jump-hopes-coronavirus-spread-133055157.html Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss how the coronavirus is impacting m...

April 4, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

The S&P 500 Will Recover Faster Than the Economy – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence revisits the phases of the Corona Virus impact on the equity markets, reviews recession math and valuation range, and shares proprietary analysis of the S&P 500’s sub-groups and explains why the Index will recover faster than the broader economy. V...

April 2, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Bottom or Not, 25% Down Has Been a Good Point to Buy Stocks – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner notes the stock market’s approval of Congress’ $2.2 trillion Coronavirus relief package, revisits his recession math driven price range for the S&P 500, and looks at how stocks performed in the 12-month periods after 25% declines during the past four market crash...

March 22, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fiscal Response Larger Than in 2008 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence’s CEO gives an update on the massive fiscal package being discussed on Capitol Hill in response to the economic shutdown and what we are watching in the week ahead. Video Transcript Yeah. Hi there. It’s a Sunday. March 22nd. I wanted to give y...

January 13, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Following the Smart Money May Not Be Such a Good Idea

In the coming weeks investment consultants will meet with their pension, foundation, and endowment clients to discuss calendar year 2019 investment performance and proposed asset allocation changes for 2020. The conversations will likely be made easier by strong 2019 performance across most asset ...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

December 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Uptick in Infrastructure Spending Looms

It’s difficult to handicap which spending bills will be approved in the U.S. Congress in the coming months, especially given the toxic political environment in Washington, D.C. But one bipartisan issue that tops most agendas is the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and the need for an infrastr...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Phase I of the U.S. – China trade deal was announced on Friday to much media, but little stock market, fanfare. The adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may have been in play. In fact, the S&P 500 Index price is up 5.4% in just the past three months, even as tariff deadlines [&helli...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

Is there wisdom in the crowd? Market pundits often express concern about the stock market’s “overcrowded trades”, referring to stocks that are owned by a large preponderance of funds and investors. The implication is that investors who own these widely held names are vulnerable to the whim...

December 2, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Healthy, While the Gap Between Sector Winners and Losers is Widening

Most preliminary reports suggest that Black Friday sales were robust, and that Cyber Monday retail activity is expected to reach a new high. The reports dovetail recent U.S. consumer spending reports which continue to paint a picture of a healthy U.S. consumer. Last Wednesday’s Commerce Depart...

November 25, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Thanksgiving Dinner Costs are Down. Pass the Turkey!

This week, millions will partake in the time-honored American tradition of the Thanksgiving feast. The origins of the celebration date back to the earliest settlers of the “new continent”, who upon forming the Plymouth Colony, suffered the perils of a harsh winter. With the help of t...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

With the U.S. consumer carrying much of the water for the U.S. and global economies, the market continues to wait for some support from manufacturing. But, to date, the manufacturing cavalry does not look ready to ride. While much of the recent slowdown in U.S. manufacturing can be blamed on t...

November 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Technology Sector Supports Higher S&P 500 Profit Margins

What a difference a year makes. Last fall we wrote about profit margins and the fear, at that time, was that margins had peaked and would come under pressure from higher corporate borrowing costs and higher inflation. In November of 2018 the Federal Reserve was in tightening mode, the U.S. 10-Ye...

November 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Bond Yields Keep CJL Market Monitor Firmly Tilted Toward Stocks

We run our C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor at the end of each month to measure the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. The Monitor was created in the early 1980s as an asset allocation tool and has served as a useful barometer...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

October 21, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Patient is in Recovery and the Prognosis for Health Care Stocks Look Good

Health care stocks have been some of the market’s worst performers year-to-date. The S&P 500 Health Care Sector Index is up 6% since Jan 1, 2019, lagging the S&P 500 by over 13%. The sector is tracking ahead of only Energy, which is down ~1.0% for the year. The underperformance comes...

October 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner , Uncategorized

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Running (Away) of the Bulls

If last week’s trade deal optimism carries through, the S&P 500 could make another run at its recent peak. The last high was made on July 26 and was tested and failed in mid-September. But generally, the stock market has traded within a range since February. Technicians will take note of...

October 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Tight Bond Spreads Suggest Recession is not Imminent

Last week’s economic data releases were market moving events. Traders’ algorithms were spring loaded and poised to react to any signal suggesting the economy was moving in one direction or the other. On Wednesday, before the open, the Department of Labor released its Initial Jobless Claims r...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

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