Economic Growth Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Our CJL Rule of 20 tells us that the sum of the forward P/E multiple on the S&P 500 added to the annual CPI core inflation rate should equal about 20. The current reading is 20.1, which sounds about right. Therefore, for stocks to move higher without violating the Rule, the “E” portion of the ...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

The market debate about the trajectory of earnings will likely escalate in the coming weeks as companies report 1Q19 financial results. But our work shows that if history repeats, there may be several more years of net income growth ahead. ...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

Given China’s voracious appetite for dry commodities, the BDI is considered a good leading indicator of Chinese economic output. The signal it is currently sending is that Chinese economic growth may be slower than consensus forecasts. The BDI reached a 5-year high in July of 2018 but is now dow...

February 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Many Will Survive but Only Few Will Thrive in a Healthy U.S. Consumer Economy

In 2003 the Federal Reserve began releasing its Financial Obligations Ratio (FOR) which captures the share of household after-tax income that is obligated to debt repayment (including mortgages, home equity lines of credit, auto loan payments, and credit card interest), including interest and princi...

February 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Tug‐of‐War Between Lower Valuations and Faster Earnings Growth Still Skews Towards Growth

The race between earnings growth rates and the rate of decline in the market’s P/E multiple is on. Along the way, the 10-30 year treasury bond spread may provide insights into the appropriate market multiple to apply. The challenge for equity investors will be to find stocks with earnings growth r...

Economic Growth

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