Bonds Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

September 24, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Back to Extreme Oversold Condition – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – 9/23/2022

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the bulls. The S&P500 is back to the June low at 3693, wiping out the strong momentum we saw in August and back to extreme oversold conditions as measured by the relative strength indicator (RSI). The culprit is core inflation or what is often called PCE...

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

April 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Profit Bulls Have History on Their Side

Last week’s jobs report seemed to strike the right tone with the stock market. The U.S. Labor Department calculated that March nonfarm payrolls advanced by 196,000 versus an estimate of 175,000, and that the U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%. Prior to its release the report was...

September 24, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Peak Margins? Not Yet.

The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield closed at 3.07% on Friday, up 8 basis points for the week, continuing its recent uptrend. In fact, the 10-year yield is up 22 basis points in the last month. Despite strong demand for treasuries, which tends to suppress yields, the 10-year treasury yiel...

August 27, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Irrational Exuberance? No. Healthy Skepticism.

According to most conventional measures, the current bull market in stocks has now earned the moniker as the “longest bull market in history”. Most peg the beginning of the current bull run to March of 2009. Since then, the S&P 500 Index has risen over 320%. That falls short of the previous ...

June 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Rising bond yields are often cited as an important risk to equity prices. Not only do higher interest rates render yields on fixed income instruments more competitive with stock earnings and dividend yields, but higher interest rates raise the equity risk premium that investors absorb when owning st...

March 5, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Bond Yield Forecasts Still Not Competitive with Earnings Yield on Stocks

Our CJL Market Monitor reading weakened in February, understandably, as interest rates rose and previously positive market technical measures reversed course. The Monitor remains narrowly in BUY territory with a +1 reading, on a scale of -6 to +6. The two components that lost ground in February incl...

January 8, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – CJL Market Monitor Continues to Favor Stocks

As investment managers, we sleep with one eye open and the other on our Market Monitor. The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the attractiveness of the stock market. It calibrates the relative appeal of stocks versus fixed income and tests the internal technical ...

January 2, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2017 Scoreboard Highlights Consistent Technology Leadership

When we wrote the year-end market summary last year, we noted the high level of sector rotation that took place on a quarterly basis throughout 2016. In 2017, leadership was instead remarkably consistent. Of the major S&P 500 sectors, Technology led all others in three out of four quarters and f...

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