Blog Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

June 2, 2025
Blog , Market Commentary

Navigating Market Uncertainty: Insights From 2018 and the Path Ahead

As many of you know, in February of this year, CJ Lawrence was acquired by Apollon Wealth Management. We are now an investment management division of Apollon and are excited about the prospects going forward. The combination allows us to focus on investing, on analysis, and on generating high-qualit...

February 3, 2025
Blog , Market Commentary

DeepSeek or DeepFake? The Moore’s Law Moment for Large Language Model

It’s been an amazing week to be a technology investor. We got this news out of China, out of a company called DeepSeek, that’s been around for a while actually, where they have broken the code in open code, creating a model that supposedly replicates the performance of some of the closed...

January 3, 2025
Blog , Market Commentary

Strong Earnings and Growth Signal a Bright 2025 Outlook

In this video Bernhard shares how. despite high valuations, productivity gains and cooling inflation set the stage for continued expansion. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp wishing you a happy new year. Well, it’s been a happy new year if you’ve been long equities. We finished th...

November 27, 2024
Blog , Market Commentary

The Thanksgiving Index: A Tasty Take on Inflation

Hey folks, it’s Terry Gordon from C.J. Lawrence. It’s Tuesday the 25th of November, just prior to Thanksgiving. This is the time of year we do our annual Thanksgiving dinner index review. We’re going to talk briefly about the bond vigilantes and whether or not they’ll ride in...

October 25, 2024
Blog , Market Commentary

The CJ Lawrence Market Monitor: Navigating Earnings Season and Market Valuations

Terry Gardner shares a mid-earnings season check-in that covers interest rates, valuations, and the Rule of 20’s impact on the Stock Market’s future. It’s Thursday, the 24th of October, about a third of the way through earnings season for the third quarter of ’24. I thought w...

September 20, 2024
Blog , Market Commentary

Fed Cuts, Slaying Dragons and S&P Record

In this video Bernhard Koepp shares his perspective on the highly anticipated Fed rate cut. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. We got the 50 basis points cut out of the Fed yesterday, which was highly anticipated, and the market is celebrating today making an all-time new high for th...

July 27, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Summer Market Update, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 7/21/23

Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. It is July 21st, and I wanted to give you a midsummer update on what we’re seeing in the markets. Our second quarter letter has gone out to clients. It’s been quite a year. The second quarter was another positive quarter. There is a saying...

June 1, 2023
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence® Named to PSN Top Guns List of Best Performing Strategies for Q4 2022

June 1, 2023, 09:10 AM Eastern Daylight Time Quarterly PSN Top Guns List published by Zephyr identifies best-in-class separate accounts, managed accounts, and managed ETF strategies New York, NY, June 1, 2023 — C.J. Lawrence announced today it has been named to the celebrated PSN Top Guns L...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Outlook Following the Silicon Valley Bank Failure, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 3/14/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, how it may change Fed policy and the latest data on inflation for February 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp from CJ Lawrence coming to you from snowy Midtown Manhattan. It’s been quite a...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Terry Gardner fro...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time. Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence. It is January 18, 2023. I hope your year is off to a good start. The market has [&h...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2022 Market Recap and 2023 Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 1/10/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a market recap of 2022 and an outlook on markets and global economies for 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. Happy New Year. Well, we’re happy 2022 is over. In terms of the markets, it was certainly not a good year. If you go through the ...

December 16, 2022
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence® Named to PSN Top Guns List of Best Performing Strategies for Q3 2022

December 16, 2022 09:10 AM Eastern Daylight Time Quarterly PSN Top Guns List published by Zephyr identifies best-in-class separate accounts, managed accounts, and managed ETF strategies NEW YORK, NY—December 16, 2022— C.J. Lawrence announced today it has been named to the celebrated PSN Top Gu...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Getting Outside, Expensive Turkeys, and US Consumers, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 11.22.22

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the American Farm Bureau’s survey of Thanksgiving dinner costs and examines the health of the U.S. consumer. Hey, good morning everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’s Tuesday the 22nd of November, coming to you from the b...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current equity market backdrop, 3rd quarter earnings, and the broken seesaw. Finally, Gardner highlights the importance of a year-end financial check-up. Terry Gardner Jr.: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’...

September 6, 2022
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence® Named to PSN Top Guns List of Best Performing Strategies for Q2 2022

September 6, 2022 09:08 AM Eastern Daylight Time Quarterly PSN Top Guns List published by Zephyr identifies best-in-class separate accounts, managed accounts, and managed ETF strategies NEW YORK, NY—September 6, 2022— C.J. Lawrenceannounced today it has been named to the celebrated PSN Top Guns ...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

August 3, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Forecasts Will Trend Lower, But That’s OK, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 7.20.22

We've got three key points today that we want to cover, the first being that we want to discuss second-quarter earnings and the likelihood that earnings expectations for this year and next will trend down in the coming months....

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

June 27, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Reversal of Fortune? Dr. Copper pointing to lower inflation ahead. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – June 25, 2022

This post was originally written on June 25, 2022, 2:39 PM EST. The S&P500 was up 6.5% last week. On the sector level, energy was down 2%, and consumer stocks were up 8%, a reversal of fortune to the year-to-date pattern. For the year, energy stocks are the best sector, up 29%, and consumer stoc...

June 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Central Banks Find Inflation Fighting Mojo – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – June 17, 2022

This post was originally written on June 17, 2022, 12:39 PM EST. There may be a silver lining to this week’s market selloff, Central Banks have found their inflation-fighting mojo again! The week started with a carefully placed leak from our Federal Reserve that a 50-basis-point increase (50 bps...

June 11, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Inflation peaking? Not quite…

This post was originally written on June 10, 2022, 8:16 PM EST. Every release of the consumer price index (CPI) is highly anticipated in the current environment, and today was no exception. May’s CPI was a disappointment to investors, including yours truly, who were looking for a continued gradu...

May 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – This Is Not March 2000, Valuations are Much More Reasonable

This post was originally written on May 27, 2022, 5:40 PM EST. Markets are up 6.2% for the week, a welcome relief going into the Memorial Day weekend! Some of the more hard-hit sectors like consumer discretionary stocks were up 9%. Economically sensitive sectors like financials, industrials, and s...

May 18, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Sifting Through the Damage, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 051822

First off, where are we now in this market sell-off versus previous sell-offs? I excluded the financial crisis of 2007, and 2008, because I don't believe that the ingredients for that market decline are consistent with where we are today. I did look then at the past three sell-offs, which included t...

May 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Markets grind lower; travel expenses up 18.6% in April

This post was originally written on May 14, 2022, 4:02 PM EST. Despite a nice relief rally going into the weekend, the market continues to grind lower, down 2.4% for the week for the broader S&P500, now down 16% for the year. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq is down 24% for the year (up 29% in 2021). [&hel...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

It's Wednesday, April 22nd. Coming to you from Midtown Manhattan with some brief market commentary as we kick off the first quarter, 2022 earning season in a relatively volatile market. So we've got four points to our call today. First, we want to discuss the current outlook for earnings and interes...

April 7, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Markets Bottomed in Q1 When Oil Peaked

This post was originally written on April 1, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The first quarter of 2022 finished yesterday with the S&P500 down 4.9%, the Tech-heavy Nasdaq down 9.1%, and the Dow Industrials down 4.6%. Oil prices peaked on March 8th at $128 per barrel (Brent crude oil) and the market bottom...

April 5, 2022
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence, Achieving Top Guns status Within Zephyr’s PSN Manager Database for 4Q 2021

March 28, 2022 09:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–C.J. Lawrence has been awarded a PSN Top Guns distinction by Informa Financial Intelligence’s PSN manager database, North America’s longest-running database of investment managers. C.J. Lawrence’s Bull Dog Equit...

March 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

“Oil and Stocks Don’t Mix” Lessons Learned From the Past

This post was originally written on March 18, 2022, 6:59 PM EST. Markets ended the week on a friendlier note, up 6.2% for the week, back to the 200-day moving average for the broader market (S&P500) while the Nasdaq has a long way to go to repair some of the technical damage it suffered since [&...

March 16, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period. Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...

March 5, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part IV

This post was originally written on March 4, 2022, 6:20 PM EST. Stagflation remains the key market risk as the Ukraine war enters week 2. Stagflation, which is defined as stagnant demand combined with rising inflation and high unemployment, was the low probabiltiy scenario going into 2022. (We rem...

February 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part III

This post was originally written on February 28, 2022, 6:01 PM EST. This morning markets were dominated by the repercussions of the severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union. Russian banks’ ability to use the European payments system (SWIFT) were severely curtailed. Russian assets a...

February 25, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part II

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022. After indiscriminate selling at the open of the market this morning, the Nasdaq and then the broader market staged quite a dramatic reversal and closed up 1.5% for the S&P500 and the Tech heavy Nasdaq up 3.5%. What did we learn from today: M...

February 24, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Impact & Implications of Ukraine War – Part I

This post was originally written on February 24, 2022 at 9:39 AM EST. Today the market is pricing in the potential market disruption of the Russian invasion of Ukraine beyond the disputed territories. Despite the Biden Administration’s unprecedented transparency regarding US intelligence regar...

February 17, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence coming to you on Tuesday, February 15th, from the C.J. Lawrence Global Headquarters here in Midtown Manhattan. I want to give you some perspective on the current state of the stock market and the economy, cove...

December 16, 2021
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

December 16, 2021 06:00 AM Eastern Standard Time NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–C.J. Lawrence has been awarded a PSN Top Guns distinction by Informa Financial Intelligence’s PSN manager database, North America’s longest-running database of investment managers. C.J. Lawrence was honored wit...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Monday, November 22nd, with a brief video on this holiday week, covering three topics. First off, it’s that time of year where we take a look at the American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving di...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

August 4, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

2Q Earnings Look Great, No Need to Try to Time the Market, Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 8.04.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by In this video, Terry Gardner analyzes S&P 500 2Q21 financial results, examines cross currents for the stock market and economy in 2022, discusses the balance between secular and...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the “market playbook”, and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning. Video Transcript Hi, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on Wednesday, February 24 with some market comme...

February 23, 2021
Blog , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

C.J. Lawrence® a leading investment advisor, has been awarded a PSN Top Guns distinction by Informa Financial Intelligence’s PSN manager database, North America’s longest-running database of investment managers. C.J. Lawrence was honored with a 4-Star Top Gun rating for its CJL Balanced –...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the themes that worked in 2020, examines the risk and reward ratio for the current stock market, and discusses positioning for 2021, all from the shores of the Great South Bay! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry G...

December 4, 2020
Blog , News & Media

C.J. Lawrence Awarded Top Guns Designation by Informa Financial Intelligence

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Morning, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Wednesday, November 25th, day before Thanksgi...

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