Blog Archives - C.J. Lawrence
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18 Jun C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Moderate Inflation Supports Healthy S&P 500 Revenue Growth

Consecutive multi-year revenue growth, above 4.0% annually, has historically been a strong underpinning for stock prices. Over the past 25 years, there have been three periods when the S&P 500 produced 4.0%+ revenue growth for three or more consecutive years. During those periods the average annual total returns on the Index were 31%, 13%, and 11% respectively. The current cycle started in 2017 with 6.5% top line growth and an S&P 500 Index total return of 21.8%. If the forecasts prove correct, the market has at least another three years of robust revenue growth to go. ...

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11 Jun C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Support for Consumer Discretionary Stocks…U.S. Household Net Worth Exceeds $100 Trillion for First Time

The Fed’s recent snapshot paints a picture of a healthy U.S. household sector.  That is good news for U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), two-thirds of which is driven by consumer spending.  But while some market watchers suggest that the U.S. economy is late in the business cycle, U.S. households have not levered up to the extent they have at the end of past cycles, raising the prospect that this cycle could last longer than consensus forecasts.  In fact, by the Fed’s measures, U.S. household balance sheets continue to improve.  ...

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04 Jun C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Beware of the Bond Trap

Declining prices and a limited ability to replace higher yielding securities with equivalent yields is symptomatic of the challenges facing asset allocators in rising rate environments. Investors looking to rebalance and reallocate balanced portfolios towards bonds may instead want to consider cash or short term fixed income instruments as a rest stop while the market recalibrates prices on longer dated maturities....

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