Blog Archives - C.J. Lawrence
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21 Oct Embracing Market Volatility – Can You Stomach 20% Annual Market Volatility? You should…

As we reflect on the 30th anniversary of the 1987 crash in the context of an 8-year bull market for stocks, it is worth highlighting that investing based on traditional measures of volatility, like the CBOE VIX index, are not always a good indicator of future market returns. There has been a lot of commentary about the VIX trading at low levels not seen since 2004 or the early 1990s. In previous periods these unusually low periods of volatility as measured by VIX, were in fact followed by very robust market returns. It is unclear if the same holds to be true for today’s market. Perhaps a better way to look at market volatility in the equities’ market is to simply divide the high and the low of the market index (S&P500) annually. This year this difference is 13%. Since 1967 you get an average percentage of 21% on average since...

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19 Oct “Finding The Optimal Balance – Lessons From a NYC Commuter”

Navigating these markets is much like my 30-minute bike commute to work every day through the streets of Manhattan (see video above in 6 min version). Every twist and turn is a split-second reassessment of risk versus reward. Your mind is constantly evaluating speed, risk, braking, volatility, potholes, shifting terrain and anticipating sudden obstacles either human or natural. The key here is to be highly alert and active. Activity is the only way to find the optimal balance. It not only leads to much safer outcomes, but also leads to better health. In the end, you will arrive at your destination safely and it gives you the satisfaction that you are in charge of your journey. These lessons apply directly to how I approach investing, which is the basis for successful long-term financial advice....

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17 Oct Europe – Unified Growth

Welcome back Growth! It’s been too long and we sure have missed you. Real GDP growth stands at 2.3% in the Eurozone slightly taller than the U.S. at 2.2%. Follow the Money and you’ll find Eurozone M3 supply up 5.0% years-on-year, 7% in the UK. Unemployment in Germany and UK has broken through multi decade lows, in France below pre-crisis 2011 levels and falling. Industrial Production across the region has surged above 2008 levels and climbing, same for retail sales and housing starts. The Euro is up 14% and Sterling 7% versus the USD. Did I mention European Equity markets? The STOXX600 is up 21% year-to-date in dollar terms. Great news? Well yes terrific if you owned sufficient European exposure, you had great kicker in your portfolio strategy. But, unfortunately, no if you have zero or minimal exposure which judging by fund flows is the more likely answer. Investors should be...

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