May Day, Maybe, Maybe Not – Brexit Meaningful Commons Vote

Tuesday January 15 is a red-letter day in UK politics. Maybe a day for the reds if you are a Labour supporter, maybe you will have the blues if you are a Tory. Regardless, the UK parliament will finally vote on Prime Minister May’s Brexit plan on Tuesday January 15th. Odds overwhelmingly favor defeat, so let’s start there. A big defeat, 200 votes or more, will likely trigger a no confidence vote and potentially a 2nd referendum or a general election. A win or very small defeat (by far the outside contender) would cement May’s leadership and drive the UK forward to an orderly exit on March 29. Somewhere in the middle (run-of-the mill defeat) is the expectation and that’s leaves all options still on the table and none the wiser as to the expected outcome of the article 50 trigger date in a little over two months. One crucial development, as part of the undercard on Jan. 15th is a vote to prohibit a no-deal Brexit should the May plan be defeated. That would have a fundamental impact on the remaining two months of Brexit posturing and push Britain towards some form a negotiated settlement, maybe not May’s way or the highway but possibly the Norway.

David Gallacher, CFA is a Partner and Portfolio Manager at C.J. Lawrence. Contact him at dgallacher@cjlawrence.com or by telephone at 212-888-3841.

 


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