Stock Market Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 9, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – Are We in a Bubble Q1 2024

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a detailed review of the reasons behind the strong Q1 2024 performance of the US equity markets and reviews some of the investment themes followed by CJL's investment management team. ...

March 15, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Lessons Learned From the Onset of the Pandemic, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 031124

In this video, Terry Gardner looks back at the market turmoil surrounding the early days of the Covid-19 epidemic....

January 9, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2023 Market Recap and Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J.L. 1.3.24

In this video, Bernhard Koepp summarizes 2023 as a year of exceptional performance, but active management needed to catch up with concentrated market gains. As he looks at 2024, calling it a year of potential, he offers advice for a patient and selective approach. This is Bernhard Koepp from C.J. La...

December 15, 2023
CJ Lawrence , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turkey Dinner Deflation, Soft Landings, and Onshoring Opportunities, Terry Gardner, C.J.L.12.6.23

In this video, Terry Gardner talks about the post-Thanksgiving market, covering inflation’s impact on holiday meals, the broader economic landscape of rates, inflation, and growth, and explores promising sectors like industrials for 2024 earnings potential. Hi everyone, it’...

July 27, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Summer Market Update, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 7/21/23

Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. It is July 21st, and I wanted to give you a midsummer update on what we’re seeing in the markets. Our second quarter letter has gone out to clients. It’s been quite a year. The second quarter was another positive quarter. There is a saying...

June 21, 2023
CJ Lawrence , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Product Cycles Often Trump Market Cycles… C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 6/13/23

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on the 13th of June, Tuesday, coming to you from sunny Midtown Manhattan. There are three points to our call today: First, we want to take a look at product cycle versus market cycle; secondly, we want to talk about how th...

June 7, 2023
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

This Time It’s Different – Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary 6/7/2023

Markets are up over 20% since the October 12 low, which typically signals the start of a new bull market. The Nasdaq is up 35% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 15% for the same period, but nobody cares. Sentiment remains bearish. Short interest remains high and if you followed ...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Outlook Following the Silicon Valley Bank Failure, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 3/14/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, how it may change Fed policy and the latest data on inflation for February 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp from CJ Lawrence coming to you from snowy Midtown Manhattan. It’s been quite a...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Terry Gardner fro...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time. Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence. It is January 18, 2023. I hope your year is off to a good start. The market has [&h...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2022 Market Recap and 2023 Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 1/10/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a market recap of 2022 and an outlook on markets and global economies for 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. Happy New Year. Well, we’re happy 2022 is over. In terms of the markets, it was certainly not a good year. If you go through the ...

December 19, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Inflation slows, yields peak, the market pops, and fizzles into the holiday. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 12/19/22

As we prepare for the holiday, the market looks like stale Champagne. There was an initial 900-point pop in the DOW on the better inflation number for November (CPI) at 7.1%. Markets were ready to pop the cork and declare inflation dead. That quickly fizzled when Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered anoth...

December 4, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

When good news is bad news; the case for GOLD – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary 12.2.2022

It’s jobs Friday, and the November data shows the US economy continues to add 200,000-plus new jobs. No slowdown there! That is in line with the stronger than expected Q3 reading for GDP, which was revised up to 2.9% annually. Hourly wages also came in higher than expected, up 0.6% versus ...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Getting Outside, Expensive Turkeys, and US Consumers, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 11.22.22

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the American Farm Bureau’s survey of Thanksgiving dinner costs and examines the health of the U.S. consumer. Hey, good morning everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’s Tuesday the 22nd of November, coming to you from the b...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current equity market backdrop, 3rd quarter earnings, and the broken seesaw. Finally, Gardner highlights the importance of a year-end financial check-up. Terry Gardner Jr.: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

It’s been quite a week. The S&P500 is now up 6% for the week, and the Tech heavy Nasdaq is up 8%. That all happened in 2 days! The Fed set the stage for this week’s October inflation report with its 3rd consecutive increase of 75bps, setting the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of [&he...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

June 27, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Reversal of Fortune? Dr. Copper pointing to lower inflation ahead. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – June 25, 2022

This post was originally written on June 25, 2022, 2:39 PM EST. The S&P500 was up 6.5% last week. On the sector level, energy was down 2%, and consumer stocks were up 8%, a reversal of fortune to the year-to-date pattern. For the year, energy stocks are the best sector, up 29%, and consumer stoc...

June 17, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Central Banks Find Inflation Fighting Mojo – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – June 17, 2022

This post was originally written on June 17, 2022, 12:39 PM EST. There may be a silver lining to this week’s market selloff, Central Banks have found their inflation-fighting mojo again! The week started with a carefully placed leak from our Federal Reserve that a 50-basis-point increase (50 bps...

June 11, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Inflation peaking? Not quite…

This post was originally written on June 10, 2022, 8:16 PM EST. Every release of the consumer price index (CPI) is highly anticipated in the current environment, and today was no exception. May’s CPI was a disappointment to investors, including yours truly, who were looking for a continued gradu...

May 28, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – This Is Not March 2000, Valuations are Much More Reasonable

This post was originally written on May 27, 2022, 5:40 PM EST. Markets are up 6.2% for the week, a welcome relief going into the Memorial Day weekend! Some of the more hard-hit sectors like consumer discretionary stocks were up 9%. Economically sensitive sectors like financials, industrials, and s...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the “market playbook”, and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning. Video Transcript Hi, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on Wednesday, February 24 with some market comme...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the themes that worked in 2020, examines the risk and reward ratio for the current stock market, and discusses positioning for 2021, all from the shores of the Great South Bay! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry G...

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Morning, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Wednesday, November 25th, day before Thanksgi...

November 11, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Post Election Market Commentary & Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – 11/10/2020 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses his economic outlook post election, the game-changing covid-19 vaccine and its implications for GDP growth in 2021, potential black swan events, worries about inflation and the US Dollar, as well as the debate on growth versus value inves...

July 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Update & Outlook – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence provides a mid-year update & outlook for 2020. C.J. Lawrence is a New York based investment adviser providing platinum level service and investment portfolio customization to individuals, families, and institutions. With a legacy that dates to ...

July 12, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

On Normalized Earnings Stocks are Not Overvalued – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist and Client Advisor, Terry Gardner, introduces the concept of “normalized earnings” and makes the case that, on that basis, the stock market is not over-valued. Gardner incorporates the CJL Rule of 20, which was developed by C.J. Lawrence Chairman...

April 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

A Day in the Life of Social Distancing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, describes a typical day in the life of social distancing to illustrate what companies are open for business during the economic shutdown and will emerge stronger after the crisis. Companies mentioned during this video broadcast include: Microsoft,...

April 17, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Markets Recover but Leadership from Financials is Missing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, In this video, Terry Gardner, Portfolio Strategist at C.J. Lawrence, reviews the stock market’s three peaks cycle in dealing with the coronavirus, examines recent economic and corporate data, and addresses the market’s recent leadership. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hi, good af...

April 6, 2020
Blog , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi – April 6, 2020

Futures jump on hopes coronavirus spread may be stabilizing https://finance.yahoo.com/video/futures-jump-hopes-coronavirus-spread-133055157.html Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, joins Yahoo Finance’s Alexis Christoforous and Brian Sozzi to discuss how the coronavirus is impacting m...

April 4, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

The S&P 500 Will Recover Faster Than the Economy – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence revisits the phases of the Corona Virus impact on the equity markets, reviews recession math and valuation range, and shares proprietary analysis of the S&P 500’s sub-groups and explains why the Index will recover faster than the broader economy. V...

March 22, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fiscal Response Larger Than in 2008 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence’s CEO gives an update on the massive fiscal package being discussed on Capitol Hill in response to the economic shutdown and what we are watching in the week ahead. Video Transcript Yeah. Hi there. It’s a Sunday. March 22nd. I wanted to give y...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

Is there wisdom in the crowd? Market pundits often express concern about the stock market’s “overcrowded trades”, referring to stocks that are owned by a large preponderance of funds and investors. The implication is that investors who own these widely held names are vulnerable to the whim...

October 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner , Uncategorized

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Running (Away) of the Bulls

If last week’s trade deal optimism carries through, the S&P 500 could make another run at its recent peak. The last high was made on July 26 and was tested and failed in mid-September. But generally, the stock market has traded within a range since February. Technicians will take note of...

September 30, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Fundamentals Drive Stocks Even During Periods of Political Turmoil

Analyzing precedence is not a particularly insightful exercise when looking for correlations between market behavior and periods of U.S. Presidential turmoil. Historically, markets have looked through Presidential crises remaining focused instead on the markets’ underlying fundamentals. The cu...

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

July 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Little Fanfare

Despite softer than expected economic data out of Asia last week, the U.S equity markets rose to new highs. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 Index all closed at new records. Falling bond yields have been the bullish propellant so far this yea...

July 8, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings Take Center Stage

Friday’s positive payroll report gave the stock market a bout of indigestion, complicating the argument that the Federal Reserve would commence an interest rate easing cycle at their July meeting. The market’s recent rise has been fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, so the noti...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

May 13, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Recent Volatility May Test the CJL Market Monitor’s Bullish Stance

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

January 14, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Individual Investors Sell Stock and Bond Funds, While Institutional Investors Shun Stocks

Outflows from domestic equity mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) accelerated into year-end 2018. According to data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI), domestic equity funds experienced outflows of $105.5 billion in 2018, $30 billion of which flowed out in the fourth quarter. ...

December 26, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

The Grinch that Stole Christmas – C.J. Lawrence Special Market Commentary – 12/26/18 by Bernhard Koepp

A perfect storm of policy missteps is to blame for the current 20% market correction off the October high. The main culprits are: Unresolved trade dispute with China Fed Tightening/Miscommunication Government shutdown over border wall Trump cabinet resignations Treasury miscommunication re banks’ ...

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