S&P 500 Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

April 9, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – Are We in a Bubble Q1 2024

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a detailed review of the reasons behind the strong Q1 2024 performance of the US equity markets and reviews some of the investment themes followed by CJL's investment management team. ...

March 15, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Lessons Learned From the Onset of the Pandemic, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 031124

In this video, Terry Gardner looks back at the market turmoil surrounding the early days of the Covid-19 epidemic....

January 9, 2024
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , News & Media , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2023 Market Recap and Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J.L. 1.3.24

In this video, Bernhard Koepp summarizes 2023 as a year of exceptional performance, but active management needed to catch up with concentrated market gains. As he looks at 2024, calling it a year of potential, he offers advice for a patient and selective approach. This is Bernhard Koepp from C.J. La...

December 15, 2023
CJ Lawrence , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turkey Dinner Deflation, Soft Landings, and Onshoring Opportunities, Terry Gardner, C.J.L.12.6.23

In this video, Terry Gardner talks about the post-Thanksgiving market, covering inflation’s impact on holiday meals, the broader economic landscape of rates, inflation, and growth, and explores promising sectors like industrials for 2024 earnings potential. Hi everyone, it’...

July 27, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Summer Market Update, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 7/21/23

Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. It is July 21st, and I wanted to give you a midsummer update on what we’re seeing in the markets. Our second quarter letter has gone out to clients. It’s been quite a year. The second quarter was another positive quarter. There is a saying...

June 21, 2023
CJ Lawrence , News & Media , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Product Cycles Often Trump Market Cycles… C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 6/13/23

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on the 13th of June, Tuesday, coming to you from sunny Midtown Manhattan. There are three points to our call today: First, we want to take a look at product cycle versus market cycle; secondly, we want to talk about how th...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Market Outlook Following the Silicon Valley Bank Failure, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence Commentary, 3/14/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, how it may change Fed policy and the latest data on inflation for February 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp from CJ Lawrence coming to you from snowy Midtown Manhattan. It’s been quite a...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Innovation at a Reasonable Price Investing Is Always In Favor, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 3/8/23

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses CJL’s Innovation at a Reasonable Price investment strategy. Terry contends that IRP is always in favor and that today’s innovators have more attractive investment characteristics than those in past cycles. Good afternoon, everyone. I’m Terry Gardner fro...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

CJ Lawrence Models and Tools That Have Stood the Test of Time, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 1/18/23

In this video, Terry Gardner introduces us to three CJ Lawrence investment models, created in the 1970s and 1980s, that have stood the test of time. Hi, good evening, everyone. This is Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence. It is January 18, 2023. I hope your year is off to a good start. The market has [&h...

May 10, 2023
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2022 Market Recap and 2023 Outlook, Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 1/10/23

In this video, Bernhard Koepp gives a market recap of 2022 and an outlook on markets and global economies for 2023. Hi there. This is Bernard Koepp at CJ Lawrence. Happy New Year. Well, we’re happy 2022 is over. In terms of the markets, it was certainly not a good year. If you go through the ...

December 19, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Inflation slows, yields peak, the market pops, and fizzles into the holiday. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 12/19/22

As we prepare for the holiday, the market looks like stale Champagne. There was an initial 900-point pop in the DOW on the better inflation number for November (CPI) at 7.1%. Markets were ready to pop the cork and declare inflation dead. That quickly fizzled when Fed Chair Jay Powell delivered anoth...

December 4, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

When good news is bad news; the case for GOLD – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary 12.2.2022

It’s jobs Friday, and the November data shows the US economy continues to add 200,000-plus new jobs. No slowdown there! That is in line with the stronger than expected Q3 reading for GDP, which was revised up to 2.9% annually. Hourly wages also came in higher than expected, up 0.6% versus ...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Getting Outside, Expensive Turkeys, and US Consumers, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence 11.22.22

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the American Farm Bureau’s survey of Thanksgiving dinner costs and examines the health of the U.S. consumer. Hey, good morning everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’s Tuesday the 22nd of November, coming to you from the b...

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current equity market backdrop, 3rd quarter earnings, and the broken seesaw. Finally, Gardner highlights the importance of a year-end financial check-up. Terry Gardner Jr.: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

It’s been quite a week. The S&P500 is now up 6% for the week, and the Tech heavy Nasdaq is up 8%. That all happened in 2 days! The Fed set the stage for this week’s October inflation report with its 3rd consecutive increase of 75bps, setting the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of [&he...

September 24, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Back to Extreme Oversold Condition – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – 9/23/2022

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the bulls. The S&P500 is back to the June low at 3693, wiping out the strong momentum we saw in August and back to extreme oversold conditions as measured by the relative strength indicator (RSI). The culprit is core inflation or what is often called PCE...

September 2, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Back to Work for Labor Day! Introducing INFLATION PROOF Investing 1.0 – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – September 2, 2022

We had another strong employment report today. August added another 315,000 jobs, ahead of expectations. Labor force participation also rose to 62%, indicating that workers are returning to work. As a result of the higher labor force participation, the unemployment rate rose to a very low 3.7%. This...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

August 3, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Forecasts Will Trend Lower, But That’s OK, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 7.20.22

We've got three key points today that we want to cover, the first being that we want to discuss second-quarter earnings and the likelihood that earnings expectations for this year and next will trend down in the coming months....

July 18, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Reflections – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – July 18, 2022

This post was originally written on July 18, 2022, 1:22 PM EST. Last week’s inflation data for June at 9.1% was a step in the wrong direction. As long as inflation surprises the upside, markets will have a tough time performing. Prices for energy, travel, and food continued to be elevated in June ...

May 18, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Sifting Through the Damage, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 051822

First off, where are we now in this market sell-off versus previous sell-offs? I excluded the financial crisis of 2007, and 2008, because I don't believe that the ingredients for that market decline are consistent with where we are today. I did look then at the past three sell-offs, which included t...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

It's Wednesday, April 22nd. Coming to you from Midtown Manhattan with some brief market commentary as we kick off the first quarter, 2022 earning season in a relatively volatile market. So we've got four points to our call today. First, we want to discuss the current outlook for earnings and interes...

February 17, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence coming to you on Tuesday, February 15th, from the C.J. Lawrence Global Headquarters here in Midtown Manhattan. I want to give you some perspective on the current state of the stock market and the economy, cove...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Monday, November 22nd, with a brief video on this holiday week, covering three topics. First off, it’s that time of year where we take a look at the American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving di...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

August 4, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

2Q Earnings Look Great, No Need to Try to Time the Market, Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 8.04.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by In this video, Terry Gardner analyzes S&P 500 2Q21 financial results, examines cross currents for the stock market and economy in 2022, discusses the balance between secular and...

July 9, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Market Review and Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – July 7, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence reviews the markets at the mid-point of the year 2021. He covers the active sector shifts in the first half of the year, reviews the strong macro conditions underpinning the US economy, discusses the debate on inflation and gives an outlook. Video ...

May 1, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Results and Innovation at a Reasonable Price (IRP), Terry Gardner, CJL Market Comment 4.29.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, Terry Gardner, discusses the strong 1Q21 results being delivered by S&P 500 companies, examines profit margins and margin expectations, assesses the “market playbook”, and advocates investing in IRP (Innovation at a Reasonable Price)...

March 17, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Interest Rate Hiccups & When Good News is Bad News – by Bernhard Koepp, C.J. Lawrence 3-4-21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, discusses the rise in interest rates and its effect on the market. Normalization of the economy also means ‘Good is Bad News’ until rates stabilize. Rotation between stocks that have done well and more economically sensitive ones that ...

March 6, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Playbook Creates Opportunities -Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.24.2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the changes in the stock market backdrop, industry group rotations below the index level, and why winners can keep winning. Video Transcript Hi, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from CJ Lawrence on Wednesday, February 24 with some market comme...

January 13, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

2021 Commentary and Outlook. What’s next? – by Bernhard Koepp – CJ Lawrence 1-7-2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp discusses the events of January 6th, 2021 in Washington DC and gives an outlook on the economy and portfolio positioning for the coming year. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: This is Bernhard Koepp from the C.J. Lawrence, wishing you a happy new year. Well look for Amer...

December 16, 2020
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Themes that Worked, Enjoying the View, Staying Selective – CJL Market Comment 12.15.20 – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner reviews the themes that worked in 2020, examines the risk and reward ratio for the current stock market, and discusses positioning for 2021, all from the shores of the Great South Bay! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry G...

December 3, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , News , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Healthy Markets and Bad News for Turkeys, Market Comment – by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this pre-Thanksgiving video, Terry Gardner discusses the stock market rotation, the movement higher in earnings estimates, and bad news for turkeys! Video Transcript Terry Gardner, Jr.: Morning, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Wednesday, November 25th, day before Thanksgi...

November 11, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Post Election Market Commentary & Outlook by Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – 11/10/2020 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses his economic outlook post election, the game-changing covid-19 vaccine and its implications for GDP growth in 2021, potential black swan events, worries about inflation and the US Dollar, as well as the debate on growth versus value inves...

September 25, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , PEG

Earnings Growers Don’t Look Expensive vs Market, by Terry Gardner – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current stock market narrative, analyzes earnings per share growth on a two-year stack, and compares sectors and stocks on a P/E-to-growth rate (PEG) basis. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon, every...

August 19, 2020
Blog , Budget , CJ Lawrence , COVID-19 , Familly , Investments , Manage , News , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Climbing the Wall of Worry – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence discusses discusses 6 points: 1) Market nearing a new high; positive fundamentals remain with the crowded trade. 2) Economy- The parade of eye-popping Q2-GDP data is out but GDP outlook looks positive; Inflation – “Fed will tolerate higher infl...

July 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Mid-Year Update & Outlook – by Bernhard Koepp – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence provides a mid-year update & outlook for 2020. C.J. Lawrence is a New York based investment adviser providing platinum level service and investment portfolio customization to individuals, families, and institutions. With a legacy that dates to ...

July 12, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

On Normalized Earnings Stocks are Not Overvalued – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist and Client Advisor, Terry Gardner, introduces the concept of “normalized earnings” and makes the case that, on that basis, the stock market is not over-valued. Gardner incorporates the CJL Rule of 20, which was developed by C.J. Lawrence Chairman...

May 15, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Looking Around Corners & the “Tilted-V” – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Portfolio Strategist, discusses how the stock market is “looking around corners” and will likely follow a “tilted V” shaped recovery. Terry also takes a look at the sequential recovery in S&P 500 earnings per share and elaborates on why it may ...

May 3, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Leadership Still Lacking; Sustainable Top-Line Growth is Key – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence reviews this cycle’s three market phases, highlights “Whatever it Takes,” laments the lack of leadership from financial stocks, and shares his analysis of consistent sales growers. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hey, good afternoon everyone. It...

April 28, 2020
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

A Day in the Life of Social Distancing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence, describes a typical day in the life of social distancing to illustrate what companies are open for business during the economic shutdown and will emerge stronger after the crisis. Companies mentioned during this video broadcast include: Microsoft,...

April 17, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Markets Recover but Leadership from Financials is Missing – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, In this video, Terry Gardner, Portfolio Strategist at C.J. Lawrence, reviews the stock market’s three peaks cycle in dealing with the coronavirus, examines recent economic and corporate data, and addresses the market’s recent leadership. Video Transcript Terry Gardner: Hi, good af...

April 4, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

The S&P 500 Will Recover Faster Than the Economy – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner of C.J. Lawrence revisits the phases of the Corona Virus impact on the equity markets, reviews recession math and valuation range, and shares proprietary analysis of the S&P 500’s sub-groups and explains why the Index will recover faster than the broader economy. V...

January 6, 2020
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – 2019 Didn’t Feel Great, but It Was!

What a difference a year makes! In the week leading up to New Year’s Day in 2018 not many pundits were forecasting that 2019 would produce one of the highest annual equity returns on record. At 28.9%, the 2019 price return on the S&P 500 is the fifth highest since 1960. But at the beginnin...

December 23, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Uptick in Infrastructure Spending Looms

It’s difficult to handicap which spending bills will be approved in the U.S. Congress in the coming months, especially given the toxic political environment in Washington, D.C. But one bipartisan issue that tops most agendas is the nation’s crumbling infrastructure and the need for an infrastr...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Phase I of the U.S. – China trade deal was announced on Friday to much media, but little stock market, fanfare. The adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may have been in play. In fact, the S&P 500 Index price is up 5.4% in just the past three months, even as tariff deadlines [&helli...

December 9, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Crowd May Be Right

Is there wisdom in the crowd? Market pundits often express concern about the stock market’s “overcrowded trades”, referring to stocks that are owned by a large preponderance of funds and investors. The implication is that investors who own these widely held names are vulnerable to the whim...

December 2, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer Remains Healthy, While the Gap Between Sector Winners and Losers is Widening

Most preliminary reports suggest that Black Friday sales were robust, and that Cyber Monday retail activity is expected to reach a new high. The reports dovetail recent U.S. consumer spending reports which continue to paint a picture of a healthy U.S. consumer. Last Wednesday’s Commerce Depart...

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