Keep Calm & Carry On: US Inflation Disappoints, Truss Blinks & US Equities Bounce – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary October 13, 2022

Going into the September inflation report today, the market was already worried about more fallout from the UK after the Bank of England on Tuesday drew a line in the sand that it will only intervene to support UK government bonds until Friday.  This sent a clear signal to the UK government and pen...
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Two steps forward, two steps back. High inflation remains front and center. – C.J. Lawrence – Market Commentary – 10/7/2022

Markets finished the week up 1.8%.  Recent economic data continues to be good for workers and bad for markets. We are still adding jobs at a healthy 250,000+ monthly rate.  The unemployment rate remains at a very low 3.5%.  This is consistent with tight labor markets and continued inflationary pr...
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Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) Back to Extreme Oversold Condition – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – 9/23/2022

It has been a tough couple of weeks for the bulls. The S&P500 is back to the June low at 3693, wiping out the strong momentum we saw in August and back to extreme oversold conditions as measured by the relative strength indicator (RSI).  The culprit is core inflation or what is often called PCE...
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Back to Work for Labor Day! Introducing INFLATION PROOF Investing 1.0 – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – September 2, 2022

We had another strong employment report today. August added another 315,000 jobs, ahead of expectations. Labor force participation also rose to 62%, indicating that workers are returning to work. As a result of the higher labor force participation, the unemployment rate rose to a very low 3.7%. This...
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Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

It's Wednesday, April 22nd. Coming to you from Midtown Manhattan with some brief market commentary as we kick off the first quarter, 2022 earning season in a relatively volatile market. So we've got four points to our call today. First, we want to discuss the current outlook for earnings and interes...
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More Volatility Ahead…

This post was originally written on March 15, 2022, 6:08 PM EST. The S&P500 swung up and down quite dramatically over the last 10 trading days, but down just “1.6%” for the period.  Nasdaq outperformed and was down 0.6% with Tech stocks finding a bid ahead of the Fed’s meeting tomorrow. T...
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Earnings Outlook Matters During Rising Rate Cycles -T Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 2.15.22 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence coming to you on Tuesday, February 15th, from the C.J. Lawrence Global Headquarters here in Midtown Manhattan. I want to give you some perspective on the current state of the stock market and the economy, cove...
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Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

On December 19, 2018 The Federal Reserve raised the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. During this holiday week, we are proud to repost this popular C.J. Lawrence Weekly, originally published on November 22, 2018 for additional perspective. Have a wonderful hol...
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Economic Fears Feed Market Volatility but Slow Stable Growth and Tame Inflation Could Be Bullish for Stocks in 2019

Stock prices tend to perform well in periods of economic and political stability.  The current environment is providing neither.  After pushing through the 3.0% level earlier this year, U.S. GDP looked to be on a trajectory to eclipse 4.0% on a sustained basis in 2019.  But the negative impact of...
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Battle Between Rising Interest Rates and Corporate Earnings Growth is On…CJL Market Monitor at Neutral

The C.J. Lawrence Market Monitor was created in the early 1980s to measure the relative attractiveness of the stock market versus bonds, and to test the internal technical health of the stock market. Over the Monitor’s 38-year history, it has been a useful asset allocation tool. While not develope...
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Healthy Corporate Fundamentals and Stalled Bond Yields Keep the CJL Market Monitor in BUY Territory

The Market Monitor’s current reading is “BUY”, with a numerical score of +1, the lowest reading in BUY territory, on a scale of -6 to +6. As the Fed has lifted the Fed Funds target rate, the year-over-year interest rate rate-of-change models have weighed on the Monitor score. But despite ri...
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C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Tug‐of‐War Between Lower Valuations and Faster Earnings Growth Still Skews Towards Growth

There are multiple reasons cited for last week’s equity market blow off. It’s difficult to know which event set the downdraft in motion but the rapid rise in interest rates, after several years of historically low rates, is a good place to start. The U.S. Benchmark 10-Year Treasury Yield finishe...
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