China Archives - C.J. Lawrence // Investment Management

November 22, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Market Outlook, the Broken Seesaw, and Year-End Checklist, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence 11.16.22

In this video, Terry Gardner discusses the current equity market backdrop, 3rd quarter earnings, and the broken seesaw. Finally, Gardner highlights the importance of a year-end financial check-up. Terry Gardner Jr.: Hey, good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence. It’...

November 14, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Fed blinks; Inflation cools; America votes; China buys vaccines; Crypto implodes; Putin retreats. – C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary 11/11/2022

It’s been quite a week. The S&P500 is now up 6% for the week, and the Tech heavy Nasdaq is up 8%. That all happened in 2 days! The Fed set the stage for this week’s October inflation report with its 3rd consecutive increase of 75bps, setting the benchmark fed funds rate to a range of [&he...

August 26, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Turning the Page on Summer 2022, Looking to 2023, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Commentary 8.26.22

This year, certainly here on the south shore of Long Island, we had a lot of encounters with sea life. More than we've seen in June and July ever in our history. I'm talking about sharks and they feed in the mornings and in the evenings. So managing risk. Not swimming during those times. Not swimmin...

August 5, 2022
CJ Lawrence , Market Commentary , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Recession? Not so fast! Unemployment Rate declines to 3.5%

The July jobs number today far exceeded expectations, increasing by 528,000, much faster than consensus for 250,000 jobs and above June’s upwardly revised 398,000 level, up from 372,000. This took the unemployment rate down from 3.6% to 3.5%. So much for a slowdown! There was a lot of hand w...

April 29, 2022
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

C.J. Lawrence Market Commentary – Market down 3.6% for the week, S&P500’s p/e back to historical average

This post was originally written on April 29, 2022, 5:45 PM EST. The S&P500 was down 3.6% for the week and is retesting the lows from early March. Volatility, as measured by the VIX Index, moved above 30 again, up from 20 a month ago, which is elevated but not signaling a washout yet. The [&...

April 20, 2022
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Earnings are OK but Rising Rates Weigh on Stocks, Terry Gardner, C.J. Lawrence Market Comment 042022 – YouTube Video & Transcript

It's Wednesday, April 22nd. Coming to you from Midtown Manhattan with some brief market commentary as we kick off the first quarter, 2022 earning season in a relatively volatile market. So we've got four points to our call today. First, we want to discuss the current outlook for earnings and interes...

November 22, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Expensive Turkeys and Supply Chain Glimmers, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.22.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

Terry Gardner, Jr.: Hi, good evening everyone. It’s Terry Gardner from C.J. Lawrence on Monday, November 22nd, with a brief video on this holiday week, covering three topics. First off, it’s that time of year where we take a look at the American Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving di...

November 5, 2021
Blog , CJ Lawrence , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

Strong Earnings, Peak Margins, and 2022 Headwinds, Terry Gardner, CJ Lawrence Market Comment 11.3.21 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Terry Gardner highlights the strong 3Q21 earnings reports being delivered by S&P 500 companies, questions consensus forecasts for profit margins, and highlights some potential market headwinds for stocks heading into 2022. Video Transcript Good afternoon, everyone. It’s Terr...

October 12, 2021
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Q3 Market Review and Risk of Stagflation Bernhard Koepp – C.J. Lawrence – October 4, 2021 – YouTube Video & Transcript

In this video, Bernhard Koepp, CEO of C.J. Lawrence gives an update on what he is watching at the end of Q3 2021 and discusses the rising risk of stagflation. Video Transcript Bernhard Koepp: Yeah. Hi there. This is Bernhard Koepp at C.J. Lawrence. It is October 4th, and I wanted to give you a [&hel...

December 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Deal and an Earnings Driven Market

Phase I of the U.S. – China trade deal was announced on Friday to much media, but little stock market, fanfare. The adage of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may have been in play. In fact, the S&P 500 Index price is up 5.4% in just the past three months, even as tariff deadlines [&helli...

November 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – U.S. Manufacturing Economy Not Yet Ready to Turn

With the U.S. consumer carrying much of the water for the U.S. and global economies, the market continues to wait for some support from manufacturing. But, to date, the manufacturing cavalry does not look ready to ride. While much of the recent slowdown in U.S. manufacturing can be blamed on t...

October 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Slide in Business Spending Growth May Be Bottoming

Microsoft’s strong quarterly earnings report and related commentary regarding IT spending were well received by the equity markets last week. The company posted quarterly financial results that exceeded analyst expectations. But perhaps what captivated the broader market’s attention ...

August 26, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Uncertainty Meter is Pegged

Friday’s stock market price action was emblematic of the current headline driven market. Initially, investors took comfort from comments that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made at a gathering of central Bankers in Jackson Hole, suggesting that the Fed was ready to take further action if needed...

August 5, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Equity Risks Rise but Relative Yield Comparison Still Favors Stocks

The Federal Reserve Board’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points last week. The move marked the first time the Fed reduced the target rate in over a decade. While the broader markets may have been looking for more than 25 basis points, inves...

July 29, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Industrial Stocks Challenged by Slowing Global Manufacturing Activity

The market playbook was challenged last week. Under the “old rules”, Friday’s release of better-than-expected second quarter US GDP should have nudged up U.S. treasury bond yields and caused gold prices to cool. But the yield on the benchmark U.S 10-Year treasury bond was flat on F...

July 1, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The Wall of Worry is Painted Gold

The geopolitical backdrop is changing fast and the markets are taking note. This past weekend the US and China agreed to resume trade talks and the U.S. agreed to delay the next round of trade tariffs. In exchange, China has apparently agreed to purchase more U.S. agriculture products.&n...

June 17, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – S&P 500 Earnings Forecasts are Heading Lower. Can the Market Handle It?

The S&P 500 posted another positive performance last week and is now within 2% of the Index’s record high set back in April. Last week’s U.S. economic reports were generally supportive. Retail sales for May came in close to expectations and prior months’ results were revised upwards. U...

June 10, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China Bite the Apple?

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, shrugged off a disappointing payroll report and ongoing concerns about U.S. – China trade relations, to post an impressive 4.4% gain last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned to playing a supporting role in the market’s adv...

May 28, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Trade Stand-Off May Lead to Long Term Gain, Short Term Pain. Overweight Communications Services

U.S. – China trade talks, or the lack thereof, continue to dominate business news headlines and are creating an overhang on stock prices. Investors hope that the overhang will be lifted soon, but both the U.S. and China look to be digging in for a protracted battle. President Trump said last w...

April 15, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Regardless of Outcome, the U.S.-China Trade Dispute May Accelerate the U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance

Most reports suggest that trade talks between the U.S. and China are progressing at a measured pace and that an agreement is near completion. The expectation that a deal will be reached looks to be priced into the stock market, so a positive outcome would likely be met with sighs of relief instead...

March 11, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – The U.S. Consumer is the Global Economy’s “Atlas”

Downwardly revised economic growth expectations for China and the Eurozone, and increasing risks to Japan’s economy, may be putting the prospects for continued global economic expansion squarely on the shoulders of the U.S. consumer. A recent report from Deutsche Bank estimated the U.S. consumer...

March 4, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Low Interest Rates Add Fuel to the Stock Market Recovery

Interest rates at the long end of the yield curve staged a minor rally at the end of last week, surprising many who were calibrating weaker global economic data into global growth forecasts. Early in the week, reports from China showed that Chinese factory activity contracted to a three-year low...

February 18, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Global Freight Indices Showing Softness

The better-than-expected trade data out of China last week was downplayed by most economists who suggested that the data may have been distorted by the timing of the Chinese Lunar New Year. Nonetheless, optimism has been rising, particularly in the Chinese equity markets, that a U.S.-China trade d...

January 7, 2019
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Stock Price-to-Earnings Ratios May Have Bottomed

The daily whipsaw of the stock market is challenging the convictions of both bulls and bears. 3% intraday moves in index prices have become the norm and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has not closed below 15 since early October. Investor concerns mostly center around the depth of a prospective glob...

December 10, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Overweight Communications Services Sector for Both Offense and Defense

The stock market’s recent swings have been dramatic. On several occasions the S&P 500 has completed a round-trip move of more than 3% in a single session. Last week the Index reached a high of 2,800 but finished the week at 2,623, down 6.3% from the intra-week high and down 4.6% for the week. ...

December 3, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Earnings on Watch

The trade détente between the United States and China may provide temporary relief from the negative sentiment around global trade. Whether the dialogue can transition into an actual agreement will play out over the next several weeks. But to date, despite growing consensus expectations of both slo...

November 26, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Checking the Pulse of the Freight Economy

The shift in economic and market sentiment during the past few weeks has been palpable. The once synchronized global growth chorus has subsided and has been replaced with a negative refrain of global growth deceleration. Recent lackluster economic data releases from China and Europe have contributed...

November 12, 2018
News & Media

C.J. Lawrence’s Terry Gardner Quoted in Yahoo Finance – November 12, 2018

3 Signs Bears Are Poised to Devour the Stock Market Bulls by Brian Sozzi, Editor-at-Large, Yahoo Finance Article Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-signs-bears-poised-devour-stock-market-bulls-193501594.html One really shouldn’t be shocked by Monday’s bruising market sell-off, provided the...

October 15, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – February Redux? Maybe Not.

The S&P 500 Index hit a new record high on January 20th of this year. Then, within nine trading days of the new high, it lost over 10% of its value. Sparking the sell-off was the release of some “hot” economic data, which was expected to usher in higher inflation and higher interest rates...

October 1, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly – Will China’s Pain be India’s Gain?

By many accounts, the pace of growth of the Chinese economy has been slowing over the past two quarters and the Chinese government is considering new sources of stimulus to help the country sustain its 6.5% target rate of GDP growth. The imposition of import tariffs on many Chinese goods destined fo...

September 4, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Freight Economy Remains Strong Despite Tariff Uncertainty

International trade watchers marked Sept 6 on their calendars as the conclusion of the public comment period for the U.S. administration’s proposed $200 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. The new tariffs could be imposed any time thereafter and come on the heels of $50 billion in new tarif...

July 23, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C.J. Lawrence Weekly Market Comment – Favorable Risk-Reward Emerging in Leading Chinese Consumer Stocks

Trade and tariff concerns caused U.S. equity markets to stumble in early June and have dominated the business news flow since. But as investors turned their attention to 2Q18 earnings results, some fear subsided, and U.S. stock prices recovered. The S&P 500 Index price is up 3.1% since July 1. B...

April 9, 2018
Blog , The Portfolio Strategist - Terry Gardner

C. J. Lawrence Weekly – Dividend Growers Provide Stability in Choppy Markets

It’s difficult to identify a singular catalyst for the market’s recent volatility. Whether it’s politics, trade, or corporate stumbles, the equity markets’ reaction to events and news has been swift and pronounced. The large intraday swings in stock prices suggest that traders are shooti...

March 23, 2018
Blog , The Trusted Navigator - Bernhard Koepp

Where to Hide In A Stormy Environment?

As we recover from the 4th snow storm in the North East, markets this week succumbed to its own perfect storm. Five factors brought down the market this week: First, there was some concern about this week’s Fed meeting and how the new Fed Chair Powell would perform in his first live press conferen...

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